After a month of war between the forces of two generals vying for power in Sudanthis country, one of the poorest on the planet, is in danger of collapse, and the conflict is causing concern in neighboring countries.

In Khartoum, a city of five million people, and in Darfur, to the west, people live locked in their homes, each time they go grocery shopping in a state of fear of a stray bullet.

The war that broke out exactly one month ago, on April 15, between the army of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (SSR) under the command of General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo has claimed the lives of 750 people, injured thousands and caused almost a million people to become displaced or refugees in other countries.

Residents of the capital without water and electricity are waiting for an alleged truce amid airstrikes, fierce skirmishes and artillery shelling.

In this country of 45 million people, a third of the population that depended on international humanitarian aid is now without it, looted or cut off after the deaths of 18 aid workers.

There is also a shortage of money as banks, allegedly looted, have been closed for a month now and commodity prices have skyrocketed: food prices have quadrupled and gasoline prices have quadrupled.

Ceasefire talks drag on

In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, both sides are negotiating a “humanitarian ceasefire” to allow civilians to leave the area and bring in aid.

However, they only agreed in principle to abide by the rules of war, postponing the issue of a cessation of hostilities to later “enlarged negotiations”.

According to researcher Ali Verzi, “Unless both camps change their thinking, it is difficult to imagine the transfer to the (battlefield) of commitments on paper.”

According to experts and diplomats, the two generals each believe they can win militarily with significant forces and foreign support. General Daglo is an ally of the United Arab Emirates and, according to the US Department of the Treasury, Wagner’s Russian mercenaries, while Egypt is heaping on Burhan with all its weight.

Thus, the two generals appear to be more interested in a prolonged conflict than in making concessions at the negotiating table.

“The army and the FSR violate the ceasefire so regularly, which is indicative of a degree of impunity that goes beyond anything, even by Sudanese conflict standards,” said Alex Rhodes, former European Union representative for the Horn of Africa.

In Darfur, “we are told that snipers open fire on anyone who leaves the house,” said Mohamed Osman of Human Rights Watch (HRW). As they are trapped, “people who were wounded in the fighting two weeks ago are dying in their homes,” he adds.

In this region, the repression during the dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir (1989-2019) against ethnic minorities by the military and paramilitaries, who are currently at war with each other, resulted in the deaths of 300,000 people in the 2000s.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) highlights that in displaced persons’ camps during the war in Darfur, “people reduced three meals a day to one.”

Sudan will become even poorer in the future

Every day, thousands of refugees arrive in Egypt, Chad, Ethiopia or South Sudan. Egypt, which is experiencing the worst economic crisis in its history, is worried. Other neighboring countries fear the spread.

In Khartoum, the airport is no longer open, shopping centers have been looted, and administrative services are closed “until further notice.” Foreigners were driven out in the first days of the war.

The two generals, who became rivals after jointly orchestrating a coup d’état in October 2021 that ended a two-year difficult democratic transition, speak only against each other through the media.

During the night, General Daglo posted an audio message online promising his rival that he would “be promptly brought to trial and hanged in public.”

A little earlier, the army commander ordered a freeze on the accounts and assets of the FSR.

What’s left of administrative offices has curled up in Port Sudan, 850 kilometers east of Khartoum, which has been freed from violence and where a limited UN team is trying to negotiate humanitarian aid.

“By destroying agri-food factories or small businesses, this war has caused a partial de-industrialization of Sudan,” Vergi told AFP. “The future Sudan will be even poorer for a long time to come,” he concludes.

^{Source: APE-MEB, AFP.}