The most important elections of 2023 will be held this Sunday at Türkiye. The country, nominally an ally and Achilles’ heel of the West, under the leadership of a values ​​and policy leader akin to Putin, a representative of the “illiberal democracy” of democracies’ slide towards authoritarianism, is at a historical crossroads.

The “Western” reading of the electoral rate is obvious. A democratic opposition coalition led by the moderate Kemal (Kılıçdaroğlu), who himself belongs to a religious minority, is wresting power from the Islamic nationalist Erdoğan, who has been in power for two-Western conspiracy theories that, with their ideological convictions and their populism, have derailed the economy and divided society.

According to the findings of the ELIAMEP Turkey program, the highest levels of nationalist authoritarianism are recorded in the electoral base of the Erdogan-far-right coalition compared to the more moderate and democratic opposition. This is despite the traditions of Kemalist nationalism represented by the dominant opposition party CHP. As Vangelis Aretaios writes (ELIAMEP Policy Brief 180/2023), Sunday’s choice (and the 2nd round that may follow) is between democratization and further consolidation of Erdogan’s authoritarian regime.

A small defeat would give Erdogan the opportunity to challenge the result, just like in 2019. As Erdogan faces prosecution, Turkey is confirming the vicious circle of costly loss of power and authoritarianism. The democratic arc of Turkey is a continuous Erdogan-Trump-Bolsonaro line. The elections are of existential importance for Turkish democracy, but also for the West, which would prefer the stability of a democratic neighbor.

Of course, there is a counterargument. Kemal’s government will rush to mend relations with the West, but so can Erdogan. If Kemal wins, the lack of a parliamentary majority will undermine his ability to govern the country. The promise of the vice presidency to each of his six associates (one of whom is the nationalist Axener) is a recipe for government weakness that can be directed towards nationalism.

As for Greece, the authoritarian Erdogan has been the main sponsor of Greek public diplomacy.

Some have concluded that Turkey is too geopolitically opportunistic and sociologically anti-Western for the West to do more than business with. This enhances the advantages of a strong leader who dominates his ruling coalition (such as Erdogan) over a weak leader of a motley coalition (such as Kılıçdaroğlu). As the new “Nixon in China,” the Islamic nationalist Erdogan could, in another transformation of Ovid, once again become an effective partner for the West. Or even a good neighbor for Greece, like Erdogan in the first period. Moreover, the restoration of the areas affected by the earthquake will depend on Western assistance.

As for Greece, the authoritarian Erdogan has been the main sponsor of Greek public diplomacy. A Kemal victory would have resulted in a long period of respite from the West to Turkey. This will not necessarily lead to a change in Turkey’s foreign policy on major bilateral issues (marine zones, “blue homeland”), despite the improvement in the climate.

An important advantage of Kemal’s victory is that it will aim at reviving Euro-Turkish relations and Turkey’s accession path, with the main points being the modernization of the customs union and facilitating movement into the EU in exchange for continuing to accept refugees from Turkey so as not to cross into Europe. It is generally accepted that the path of Turkey’s accession to the EU has zero chances to reach the final destination. However, his two-sided instrumental advantages dictate careful choreography to pretend he’s alive. Turkey’s European orientation creates opportunities. He resets Euro-Turkish relations in a sectarian context. This allows Greece to initiate a roadmap for stability and cooperation, as well as use European leverage to move Turkey towards a better neighborhood with European Greece.

Mr. Yorgos Pagoulatos is Professor of European Politics and Economics at the Athens University of Economics and Business.