Whoever wins Turkey’s elections this month is expected to maintain warm relations with Russia, a key NATO member, after Ankara’s foreign policy has already undergone a sharp shift in several years.

The change was prompted by Turkey’s severe economic crisis, which has forced President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to mend strained relations with countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Israel, which he has previously criticized, analysts say.

Russia’s war against Ukraine and the impact on the global economy also signal that now is not the time for Ankara to become embroiled in international disputes, which have been a hallmark of Erdogan’s two decades in office.

Rapprochement with Egypt and even an attempt to normalize relations with Syria continues 12 years after the start of the Syrian war.

“These upheavals were more of a necessity than a conscious choice,” says Fatih Ceylan, head of the Ankara Policy Center, a think tank based in the Turkish capital. At the same time, Russia was a neighbor with which Turkey had to cooperate, he notes.

DIPLOMATIC BALANCE SHEET

Turkey is engaged in a diplomatic balancing act after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Ankara opposes Western sanctions against Russia and has close ties to both Moscow and Kyiv, its Black Sea neighbors. He also criticized Russia’s invasion and sent military drones to Ukraine.

“Turkey cannot leave Russia aside, it is a strong neighbor, and we have strong economic and trade ties that are directly related to our national interests,” Ceylan emphasizes.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdogan participated virtually in the opening ceremony of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, built by Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom. Putin called it a landmark project that contributed to “strengthening the multilateral partnership between the two states.”

On May 14, presidential and parliamentary elections are held in Turkey, which are considered to be the most important in the modern history of the country. A cost-of-living crisis fueled by inflation has eroded Erdogan’s support in recent years, and opinion polls show him lagging behind his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

“Any prolonged foreign policy crisis can further affect the Turkish economy,” warns Birgul Demirtaş, professor of international relations at the Turkish-German University in Istanbul.

A NEW ORIENTATION IN FOREIGN POLICY?

Moscow is concerned that the change in government could lead to a more pro-Western stance in Turkey, says Ahmet Kamil Erozan, vice president of the IYI party, which is part of the six-party opposition alliance.

“We have to sum up both Russia and the United States on the first day of work, because Erdogan’s foreign policy was based on personal relationships,” said Erozan, who was considered one of the opposition’s foreign minister candidates. will win

Turkey will aim to reduce its energy dependence on Russia from 50% to 30% if the opposition wins the election, adds Erozan, who is also a former diplomat.

Turkey maintains warm relations with Russia despite the war in Ukraine, and last year Ankara and the United Nations agreed on a deal that allowed for the resumption of Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports.

Turkey’s balanced approach to Russia will not change if Kilicdaroglu replaces Erdogan, says Ceylan, who was Turkey’s ambassador to NATO.

Turkey has close economic ties with Russia, including tourism, gas supplies, trade in grain and other agricultural products.

The opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu himself promised “strong and reliable continuation of relations between Turkey and Russia” if he is elected president.

THE OPPOSITION WANTS THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS TO HAVE A VOICE AGAIN

The opposition alliance, which has vowed to reverse many of Erdogan’s policies, also said it would prioritize diplomacy and abandon the confrontational style that has characterized Turkey’s foreign policy for the past decade.

The Alliance wants the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to take the initiative again, and promises to build relations with the US and Russia based on mutual trust.

The changes in Turkey’s foreign policy have been welcomed by its regional rivals, but Ankara’s relationship with the European Union remains complicated.

Erozan said the united opposition sees full EU membership as a firm goal and said the EU’s values ​​of human rights, democracy and the rule of law are in line with its vision.

The opposition intends to return to the traditional parameters of Turkey’s foreign policy, based on orientation towards the West, confirms the former leader of the pro-Kurdish party HDP Selahattin Demirtaş.

Photo source: DreamsTime / Jozsef Soos