Ten days before graduation election season – this will happen next Friday, May 19 – two main parties enter the final stretch by focusing on four main pillars: Firstlyin how they will deal with their main opponent and what strategy they will use, emphasizing their advantages or “hitting” the opponent’s shortcomings. Secondly, which prefectures and cities they will travel through, conveying their main political message just before the elections. Which regions they end up visiting is of particular interest, as the characteristics of each region “reveal” where they want to be and why political leaders should give it importance. Basically, these are territories that are either “castles” of one side or another, or it is extremely important to reduce the difference with 2019.

third axis these are social groups that the two leaders will emphasize, either because they are superior to their opponent, or in order to make up for lost ground. End, the videos that will be broadcast will be interesting for the last 10 days. They will broadcast the final message that the two parties want to send to voters shortly before they go to the polls to choose a party. Here it is interesting if N.D. and SYRIZA will focus on their positive message or try to destroy the opponent.

Positive narrative and focus on young people and retirees

Stavros Papantoniou

Until Friday, May 19, there are ten days left, when the pre-election period formally ends, so that on May 21, the citizens of Greece can vote undividedly for the party and MPs they want. Considering that the last ten days are always critical, Maximos’ palace will move along four axes:

First, with regard to the standoff with SYRIZA, the prime minister will talk more about structural political differences with his opponent, “without falling into a toxic standoff,” as his colleagues say. At the same time, it will highlight the dilemmas of stability and instability, and whether the country will continue to move forward or turn back. In any case, if observed lately, the prime minister tends to speak politically and avoid toxicity, wanting to crystallize his party’s positions in front of the citizens, and not engage in a dirty fight, which is also what the vast majority of citizens want. .

Secondly, for the last ten days, the Prime Minister has a full and focused tour program in the region, as well as in Attica. Mr. Mitsotakis will be on May 10 and 11 in the heart of Thessaly, in Trikala, Karditsa and Volos, followed by Crete, specifically Heraklion, Rhodes, Kastoria, Thessaloniki and of course, at the end, Athens for the main campaign speech in Thissio. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister will be in Lavrion on Sunday and in Piraeus on Tuesday. These are areas with specific targeting, as either in the last elections some of them had little difference with SYRIZA, or others had a specific “profile” with moderate and popular characteristics.

Targeted tours by K. Mitsotakis to destinations where the difference with SYRIZA in 2019 was small or has popular characteristics.

Middle class

After all, these are the electorates that the prime minister will address in a coordinated manner over the past ten days, which is the third axis in the last segment. In addition to the youth, for whom Mr. Mitsotakis has reserved another benefit before the elections, issuing a so-called youth pass, the prime minister will address the middle and popular strata in a coordinated manner. “These communities have a comparative advantage over SYRIZA,” a government source tells K, recalling that the prime minister has cut taxes more than he announced before the 2019 elections. The government is also paying a lot of attention to pensioners, a very general public, which today is aware of the cost of the “personal difference” of the Katrugalos law. It is no coincidence that in all his recent posts, the prime minister mentions the issue of pensions, comparing the policy of SYRIZA with the policy of his government.

The fourth and final axis, which will be based on the last ten days, is the election commercials that will spread the message throughout the country. N.D. will invest even more clearly in a positive narrative and what it intends to do in the new four-year period. The belief that exists in Maximos is that elections are won “not only because of what you have done, but mainly because of the vision of what you intend to do,” as a competent source says. However, the prime minister will definitely emphasize that Alexis Tsipras, in addition to “free criticism of the government,” only proposed “a huge program of benefits, which mathematically leads to a new memorandum.”

Contact the Center and view the program

Antonis Anzoletou

Iro Bezu, daughter of Yannis Bezu, an actress herself, became the new voice in the penultimate series of commercials for SYRIZA under the slogan “everything changes when many want it.” Koumoundourou now stops highlighting the “bad texts” of the government and moves on to positive messages. The new video shows ordinary people, small businesses, workers and young people waiting for “change” on May 21st. They symbolize the alliance of forces in which the official opposition hopes to win in the polls of simple proportionality. And maybe Alexis Tsipras appears only at the end of this series of videos, with some clips from his tours, but the last cycle will be completely focused on him.

The President of SYRIZA will pose the final dilemmas on the way to the elections, emphasizing the need to form a progressive government from the first meeting and the goal of eliminating the ND. and Mr. Mitsotakis from power, as well as the proposal of the party government. Regarding yesterday’s PEGA report, he will focus on the country’s unwavering European course, which was guaranteed by SYRIZA in the period 2015-2019.

The party’s gaze over the past ten days will be clearly centered, both with constant references to Andreas Papandreou and replies from former Prime Minister Nikos Androulakis. Alexis Tsipras of Lamia has not even forgotten the 1985-inspired slogan “better duck than Mitsotakis”, which, bringing it to today’s reality of the €150 Youth Pass, paraphrased it as “a better shot than Mitsotakis”. The strategy of attracting younger ages, which he refers to in each of his speeches, is understandable. With a purposeful promotion of the program, he will try to restore relations with the middle class in the remaining time.

The last cycle of Komundur’s advertising campaign will be dedicated to the president of the party, El. Tsipras.

Tours

The cities that Alexis Tsipras should visit are now few. He has already visited the “grey areas” where he wants to increase his interest, as well as the “castles” where he wants to increase his strength.

After Piraeus, where he focused on issues of accuracy and everyday life, today the interests of Kumundur monopolize the debate. On Thursday, he will perform in Larisa, aiming for recovery in the Thessalian plain. All four prefectures turned pink in 2015, and Kumunduru believes that the prospects are very good. On Friday, he will visit three blue castles: Alexandroupolis, Komotini, and in the evening he will speak in Kavala, wanting to show that conservative voters disillusioned with New Democracy’s policies can find refuge in SYRIZA.

Magnesia lost to SYRIZA in 2019 by six points, but in Volos, where Alexis Tsipras will perform on Saturday, New Democracy finished second. Next Sunday he will be in Agrinio. The last five traditional “balconies” were closed as follows: on Monday, the 15th of the month, he will perform in Ioannina, the municipality that SYRIZA won four years ago. On Tuesday he will address the people of Thessaloniki, on Wednesday he will be in Heraklion, on Thursday in Athens and on Friday at the “Syris Castle” in Patras.

The Blues are leading the final stretch until May 21st.

Dora Antoniou

Consolidating lead in the New Democracy opinion poll, as well as contrasting with SYRIZA, shows the new Pulse poll for SKAI. The intention to vote with a recall over the actual ones gives the ND an advantage of 6.5 percentage points, which is recorded with a percentage of 32.5% compared to 26% of SYRIZA.

At the same time, Kyriakos Mitsotakis is gaining 38% in preference for the person of the prime minister after the elections, against 27% for Alexis Tsipras. PASOK can’t seem to hit a double digit percentage and is rated at 9% strength, followed by KKE at 6%. Both MeRA25 and Hellenic Solution show a decline in voting intent. In the abbreviated results, the party of Janis Varoufakis appears with a percentage of 4%, while the “Greek Solution” is exactly at the limit necessary to enter the parliament, i.e. at the level of 3%.

Freedom Sailing, National Creation, ANTARSYA and the NIKI party appear with a percentage of 1%, and undecided – 12%.

6.5% difference with SYRIZA in the Pulse poll for SKAI – 9% for PASOK and 6% for KKE.

There was a special question in the survey for those who were undecided, who were asked to answer which option was closer to them. Based on their answers, N.D. and SYRIZA seem to get 11% undecided, PASOK 6%, KKE 4% and Hellenic Solution and MeRA 25 out of 3%. However, 42% of those who were undecided also chose “don’t know/don’t answer” in this special question.

An estimate of the distribution of seats by simple proportionality, obtained from the answers to a special question, gives a six-party parliament with an out-of-parliament percentage of 11%. According to N.D. receives 118 seats, SYRIZA 96, PASOK 35, KKE 24, Hellenic Solution 12 and MeRA25 15 seats. Based on these data, N.D. and PASOK can form a government. To form a government from a second SYRIZA, it is not enough to cooperate with PASOK and MeRA25, as the three parties add up to 146 seats, and the cooperation or tolerance vote of another party is needed.

However, 32% of citizens would prefer that the next government be independent of the SI, and another 9% would choose a government of cooperation with the core of the SI. 14% want an independent government of SYRIZA and 17% of a government of cooperation with SYRIZA at the core, while 8% say they would prefer a grand coalition government.