Alternative scenarios for the May 21 vote results, and their handling of the critical phase of the investigative orders that follow, are being considered by the parties as the election season enters its final stages, with N.D. maintain a clear lead over him in the polls SYRIZA And PASOK move in extreme double-digit percentages.

According to the party headquarters, the scene that will take shape on the night of upcoming electionsbut also the position of the parties until – almost a foregone conclusion – the formation of an interim government that will return the country to the elections, will decisively affect the ratios on July 2, when the second election competition is expected. will be held with the new election law.

N.D. and 151

Best for premiere Kyriakos Mitsotakis and N.D. the scenario is that in the May 21 elections it will provide a percentage of 34% or more, which will be the “threshold” of achieving independence in the second contest, while PASOK will “fly low” to cancel the prospect of forming a cooperation government. Conversely, a more complex equation for Piraeus would be the possibility of N.D. and PASOK to get more than 151 MPs in total. And this is because in this case it will be decisive, as they say, “with what reasoning and whose responsibility” the country will again be led to elections: from Maximu and Komundur and Harilau Trikoupi, it did not go unnoticed that the request to make an attempt to form a government for the next the day after May 21 leaves no one indifferent to public opinion.

In the latest Pulse poll on SKAI, when asked “if an independent government does not appear in the upcoming elections, what is better to do”, 21% answered “try to create a cooperation government at any cost”, “try to create a cooperation government, and if not deliver … new elections ” 27% and “new elections as soon as possible” 34% (“don’t know – don’t answer” 8%).

Mr. Mitsotakis has stated in his recent statements that he will receive a research mandate from the President of the Republic. Katerina Sakellaropoulou and will move depending on the election results. Although the prime minister keeps his papers closed even from his closest associates, senior government officials believe that the country will be led to a repeat election, although under the prime minister’s mandate, a meeting with Mr. Androulakis.

At the institutional level, N.D. it is assumed that he will refer to the fact that a government with a marginal parliamentary majority in the region of 151-153 seats, even a one-party one, is de facto unstable. Moreover, in this case, the North Dakota cooperation government will be the subject of discussion. – PASOK, i.e. two parties with different goals and guidelines. In addition, the two parties are expected to have important programmatic differences, with Megaros Maximos’ plan for “universal evaluation” being the most important.

At the second level, from N.D. persistence Mr.. Androulakis as a “third person” as prime minister. As was emphasized, in Europe the generally accepted rule for cooperation governments is that the leader of the first party becomes prime minister. In fact, he also takes it as a principle Alexis Tsipras, while he was active during the formation of the government of Samaras-Venizelos, although N.D. it had lower rates in 2012.

SYRIZA and difference

For Kumunduru, the ideal scenario would be to refute the current opinion polls and in the May 21st polls be at least marginally the first game or lose by a small margin. If he wins the election, Mr. Tsipras’ statements indicate that he will seek to form a government in cooperation with PASOK. However, the outcome of the venture is extremely doubtful. Harilaou Trikoupi immediately rejected the “Contract of Change” proposed by SYRIZA as the basis for a programmatic rapprochement, while, according to his interlocutors, Mr. Androulakis will insist on the position of “neither Mitsotakis nor Tsipras as prime minister” to the end “.

At the same time, as you know, Mr. Tsipras rejected the possibility of forming a government of losers with the participation of PASOK and, possibly, with the admission of MePA25. However, officials do not rule out that he will bring up loser scenarios and tolerance “if the numbers come out”, if not within his own mandate, at a meeting chaired by Ms. B. Sakellaropoulou in a last-ditch effort to form a government. .

Finally, the inevitable scenario for SYRIZA is a clear defeat by a significant margin against ND, with the latter receiving additional interest that will give it a “demonstration of self-confidence”. In other words, a repeat of 2019, when the result of the European elections essentially predicted the outcome of the subsequent national elections. As they say, if the difference is N.D. – SYRIZA May 21 is a big one, a significant demobilization of the official opposition party on the way to new elections is not ruled out. Moreover, the second elections, in July, will be held in the middle of summer and at the height of the tourist season.

PASOK and polarization

The inevitable scenario for Koumunduru is the most positive election outcome for PASOK. If SYRIZA has no chance of winning the second ballot, Mr. Androulakis can present himself as the only one who can put an end to Prime Minister Mitsotakis through government cooperation with the ND; case of independence for North Dakota as a rising opposition force as SYRIZA will suffer consecutive electoral defeats from 2019 onwards.

On the contrary, the “next day” will be difficult in Harilau-Trikoupi if the difference between N.W. – SYRIZA is low or if PASOK falls below the bar of a net two-digit percentage. It is recognized that if the second election contest takes on the character of a derby, then the polarization that prevails will lead to strong pressure from the two gladiators on the PASOK electoral base. Also, in the case of low scores, there is a risk of introversion.