The result of 17 constituencies out of 59 in the country will largely determine the final result of the election. This follows from the analysis of the party headquarters, which studied the details of the results of the 2019 elections, in relation to polling data and demographic data for the past four years. These are regions with populations and political identities, such as Evros, where there is a surge of the extreme right, or where the outcome is mixed, as in 1 Thessaloniki. The range of difference in some major regions such as the Second Piraeus, the Western Sector of Athens, Achaia and Heraklion in Crete is also considered a barometer.

PELLA and KILKIS

In Northern Greece, ND’s biggest problem is to its right. The two most notable examples are the prefectures of Pella and Kilkis, where N.D. feels threatened by the ultra-conservative public. Characteristically, in 2019 in Kilkis, Hellenic Lysi and Golden Dawn the combined rate exceeded 10%, while in Pella the corresponding percentage was over 9%. The difference from SYRIZA may be large in both districts, but this does not mean that there are no risks in 2023. The main goal of N.D. after the bloc in the Cassidiari party, as well as in other formations (Emfietsoglu-Bogdanos, Latinopoulou, etc.), which have invested their weight in the pools of voters in Northern Greece, should limit the flows to its right, although in this particular case, it is impossible to assess where in Ultimately, the voters of these parties will go. So this is where the range difference becomes important.

1 THESSALONIKI

The urban center of the capital has begun to “atinize” in recent years, seasoned election experts say, as it does not display the classic electoral behavior seen in the rest of Macedonia. This was already evident in 2019 when – with the recent Prespa agreement – ​​North Dakota received 35.5% and SYRIZA 31.3%. As a result, an area of ​​300,000 people in the contested county is singled out for 2019.

serre

Otherwise, Serres would not have made the derby list, but the nomination for Tsipras gives a different character to the local battle. The resumption of Kostas Karamanlis’ lineage after the Tempe accident and his confrontation with the President of SYRIZA are polarizing the climate. Tsipras wants to “tear down the castle” of Serres, i.e. Karamanism at home, and the former minister raised the gauntlet, rallying his own audience.

EUROS

Although Evros was 17 points apart in 2019, the prefecture of Akrita is now included – and rightly so – on the unreliable map. The reason is that this is a typical example of the explosive rise of the far right, with Casidiaris’s party reaching the highest percentage nationwide in the measurements before his exclusion. The bet now is where those 9%-10% of the electorate will move.

ARTA

Alexis Tsipras’ special hometown was one of the few prefectures to give him, albeit marginally, the top spot in 2019. An oxymoron is that Arta is a traditionally conservative prefecture that was dyed “blue” even in 1981, when all of Greece voted “Change”. The battle in the prefecture of Epirus is controversial, and the ruling party is definitely looking to take the lead again. resisting the desire to maintain its high percentage, which reached 40% in 2019.

KEFALONIA

In the Ionian ND, he wants to keep a safe distance from SYRIZA, as despite a 7-point difference in 2019, the main opposition party scored quite high percentages. Of the Ionian Islands, Kefalonia is the one where SYRIZA is estimated to have received the most votes. Therefore, he was recruited by N.D. as a competing candidate, Professor Napoleon Maraveyas.

EUBEA

Evia, in the capital of which Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was yesterday, is a very problematic prefecture, which in 2019 ceded to N.D. only 1.7%. In the next four years, he experienced one of the greatest natural disasters, when his northern part was reduced to ashes. Given the devastation and the fact that major projects that will bring the island out of obscurity are not completed, SYRIZA will look to take the lead and N.D. to save her strength.

ACHIA

In the third most populous region of the country, the centre-left traditionally has a very high percentage, which was proven in 2019 when SYRIZA reached 40.27%. Purpose N.D. a difference of almost 8 points will be reduced, which will have a multiple impact due to the large population throughout the country. Decisive here will be the percentage that PASOK will receive in the constituency, inextricably linked with the history of the party.

ARCADIA

If the Peloponnese, that is, the prefectures of Laconia, Messinia, Argolis and Corinthia, constitute a “castle” to the SW, there is one exception: Arcadia. Traditionally a county with a very strong PASOK throughout the post-colonial period, it also has a centre-left identity in its DNA. Given that PASOK has strong voices with Constantinopoulos and Yannakouras, the outcome of the battle in the prefecture is as critical as ND. she wants her interest rates to stay high and SYRIZA not to go any lower.

ATHENS

The central region of Attica has traditionally been “blue”. Its demographic decline and changing population composition led N.D. to 42% in 2019, lower than previous figures. N.D. in the district in question, she is pushed with the right hand, which, by all indications, will be a general indicator of the final result. On the other hand, SYRIZA will push through Athens A with a strong vote to show that she is now (also) an urban force.

ANAT. ATTICH

It is the area with the largest population growth nationwide, having gained two additional seats since the census. This in itself gives it a special weight in the May 21 match, as it now has a population of over half a million people. In addition, there is a traditionally strong element of the extreme right in South Attica – in the last decade it was the “stronghold” of the Golden Dawn – which creates uncertainty about where the supporters of the banned party will turn.

SW ATHENS

Castle SYRIZA in 2019, where it won by almost 9 points, is a big bet for both sides: for the official opposition because they have to keep the difference, and for N.D. because he has to close a gap in a populated area with strong folk characteristics. The fact that the Prime Minister himself is once again a candidate in this constituency testifies to the importance he attaches to him.

ATHENS NOTE

It is the largest constituency in the country, in which regions with completely different sociological characteristics coexist, such as Glyfada and Kaysariani. The large population, which exceeds half a million, makes this region a barometer in itself. N.D. he wants to keep the lead he had in 2019, but given that SYRIZA has one of the strongest votes in the region and aims for the best possible result.

II PIRAEUS

The fact that Kyriakos Mitsotakis has visited the region three times in recent months shows how important he considers it. Primarily a district of popular strata, Piraeus II in 2019 gave SYRIZA one of the biggest distinctions that the main opposition party wants to keep. N.D. he will try to bridge the gap, not only on the basis of appearance, but also in substance, since this is one of the largest constituencies in the country.

CHANIA

Of all the prefectures of Crete, the biggest derby was recorded in Chania, where SYRIZA won with a score of 3.3% in 2019, and today N.D. strives to be first. The derby in Chania has a lot to do with the fact that, unlike the other three prefectures of Crete, PASOK is not doing very well here, and therefore does not “cut” votes from SYRIZA, leading to an inconclusive battle between the two big parties.

HERAKLEON

The largest prefecture of Crete and the fourth largest in the country could not but be among the most important constituencies. In 2019, SYRIZA overtook N.D., winning it by 13 points and reaching 43%, while N.D. was at 30%. Today, the reduction in margins must be taken for granted because of… Androulakis, who, as a native of Heraklion, has increased interest rates. However, SYRIZA wants to be first again by a margin.