His sudden illness Recep Tayyip Erdogan last Tuesday, in his live TV interview, he “froze” her Türkiye. The day after the episode, he canceled his entire campaign program. Now they say he will need to rethink all of his campaign planning.

Scenarios for the future of ourselves and the country flared up. The mildest of these pre-election measures. It is estimated that, perhaps for the first time in his twenty years of rule, Erdogan creates the image of a “tired president.” In other words, he sends a message that is the opposite of what he put his entire election strategy into – the message of a mighty Turkey that, despite its economic upheavals, is building aircraft carriers and constructing nuclear power plants.

It is no coincidence that the first public speech of the President of Turkey, even in the format of a teleconference, took place at the opening ceremony of the Akyuyu nuclear power plant together with his colleague Vladimir Putin. It was an image that somewhat amused his staff and fans.

“Turkish voters demand. They need a strong leader. In 2002, then Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit was ill for several weeks. His illness coincided with an economic crisis, resulting in him receiving only 1.2% of the vote in that year’s elections. He was defeated by Mr. Erdogan as dynamic and young,” an experienced journalist from a neighboring country reminded us.

But what happened these days has once again disturbed those who emphasize that the whole country depends on Mr. Erdogan because of his increased powers, as a result of which almost nothing works without a president. There was also concern about the ease with which rumors spread about his health, most of which came from sources in Russia and China and suggested that Mr. Erdogan had suffered a heart attack or stroke. While his doctors and colleagues in Turkey spoke of a severe cold or gastroenteritis, few believed them, as Mr. Erdogan’s medical history is grim.

Now the country is entering the last electoral stretch, with only two weeks left before the polls, and political scientists are wondering if Mr. Erdogan will have the stamina to “bring” the most difficult measures to the finish line. Others are already wondering if he can rule Turkey if he wins. A country where people are getting poorer every month, their purchasing power is declining, and everyone predicts a big economic crisis after the elections.

When the townspeople laugh…

A few days ago we visited a famous Turkish supermarket chain in Istanbul. Our goal, in addition to shopping, was to look at the prices of products on the shelves. There we met two middle-class old women who looked with amazement at the prices of potatoes and onions. We contacted them, and when we learned that the price of onions had reached 35 pounds, while in November 2022 it was about 10 pounds, we also became worried. The price of minced meat has reached 390 pounds per kilogram, while in the summer of 2022 it was about 200 pounds. The two ladies looked at the prices and started laughing and joking because they couldn’t believe the markups!

As I approached the checkout, I met my friend, the head of a large company, who bought a bottle of Turkish raki and a few snacks. I shared with him what I had just discussed with the ladies and their laughter about prices. Then he reminded me of a story: an Ottoman-era sultan often sent what he said were his associates to the market to inform him of the reaction of the people. When he was told that “the people were complaining,” the Sultan raised taxes. He was told that “the world is murmuring against you”, and he continued to raise prices. One day, however, one of his followers told him that “people see the prices and laugh.” Then the Sultan called all his close associates and told them that “the matter is serious, measures must be taken.” “We seem to be in this phase,” my interlocutor told me, “because the world has gone beyond its limits. He’s just waiting to see what happens after the election.”

The Turkish President is facing four active political leaders who “manage” the opposition campaign, and inflation, which in some cases reaches … 100%.

Official inflation in Turkey is about 50%. But many food items have increased from 100% to 210%. Real estate prices have increased by 180% in a year. The increase in rent for the year exceeded 140%.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan in this economic situation promises to improve the economy after the elections, but for now he presents to Turkish citizens his symbolic achievements: the transformation of Hagia Sophia into a mosque, the TOGG electric car, an unmanned aircraft, and also an airplane. Anadolu carrier.

“The bow determines the voter’s decision more than the TOGG electric car. Indeed, the believer is moved to tears when he prays inside the Hagia Sophia, or will be impressed when he sees the Anadolu ship at anchor. But when he comes home and sees the price of onions, everything changes there. But pride does not determine political preferences,” says political scientist and sociologist Bekir Agirdir in an interview with the Oksijen newspaper.

Most opinion polls in Turkey show Kemal Kilicdaroglu ahead of Erdogan. However, in recent days, the Turkish president has also raised his interest and reduced the gap from his opponent. The latest data from reliable companies shows that Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s rating ranges from 43% to 48%, while Mr. Erdogan’s rating lags between 39.7% and 44%. Polls conducted for the headquarters of Turkey’s main party predict that in the first round of elections, the Turkish opposition candidate will win 48%, and Mr. Erdogan – 47%.

“Trojan horse”

The decisive factor in this electoral battle will be the third candidate, Muarem Ince, who in the 2018 presidential election was Mr. Erdogan’s rival and opposition candidate and lost by a wide margin. Now his candidacy can take the presidential elections to the second round, since he will draw most of his strength from the voters of Mr. Kilichdaroglu, since he himself comes from the Republican People’s Party. Opposition parties see Mr. Inç as a Trojan horse for the Turkish president.

The reality is that Mr. Erdogan bears the brunt of the campaign, because he is the one who can hold and rally people around him. The AKP is a party that can win from 38% to 40% in parliamentary elections, unlike other parties of the People’s Alliance, where Devlet Bahceli is tired, Fatih Erbakan does not have popular support, and Khuda Par’s percentage does not reach 1%.

The opposition, however, “leads” an election campaign almost every day with the participation of four people. Together with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu and Good Party Chairman Meral Aksener continue their election campaign.

Turkish presidential voters say Mr. Erdogan is capable and has the political charisma to oppose them all. As long as health allows.