On the election morning coffee table at Maximos, there is always a figure: 6%. There, according to K’s information, the difference between today’s ND poll indicators fluctuated several days before the official announcement of the elections. from the 2019 ballot box. The latest count showed that the ND is moving towards 33.5% today lost over 6 points from 39.85% in 2019.

The strategy of the last month is aimed at the repatriation of these 6%. The same sources indicate that this percentage is divisible. It appears that half of the inactive voters belong to the center and the other half to the right. According to a government source, the 3% who are “coming out of the middle have definitely moved to the undecided”, while the remaining 3% are “full-blooded” right-wingers and have probably defected to another party to the right of the ND.

Further qualitative analysis of these crucial 6%, with separate questions about their prioritization, shows that the centrist 3%, who have moved into the gray zone, can more easily return to the NW. The reason is, as an experienced analyst explains to “K”, that N.D. Kyriakos Mitsotakis has strengthened her centrist profile over the course of four years, as all polls show, maintaining her appeal to centrist-minded citizens who also show more “systemic” behavior than those who move on the fringes of the right. In turn, the analysis of the remaining 3% shows that citizens who left N.D. and moved further to the right, have very different criteria than the centrists, and want a more emotional approach.

The right-facing public is found mainly in the constituencies of Northern Greece, which also explains Mr. Mitsotakis’ recent disgust when he visited Didymotecho, where he asked N.D. call on fellow citizens who look towards the “parties or factions” to the right of the party to think about who pursued the “patriotic course”.

It is calculated that the losses are divided: half from the center and half from the right.

What the ND will recommend even more, before the election, is all the policies it has pursued for four years in the areas of national defense, immigration and foreign policy, reminiscent of the policies of Tsipras that turned the country into an “open vineyard”.

Another detail that few people noticed is that N.D. he places great emphasis on relations with the heads of the church, especially in Northern Greece. Characteristically, party secretary Pavlos Marinakis meets with local metropolitans on all his trips, trying to strengthen relations.

A concerted effort to bring some of the right 3% back to the New Democracy is also reflected in the prime minister’s touring schedule ahead of the election. By May 21, Mr. Mitsotakis will be in four prefectures in Northern Greece, more than in any other geographic region of the country. In particular, he will visit Kastoria, Thessaloniki, for a central campaign speech on Wednesday, May 17, and the program includes visits to two Central Macedonian prefectures around Thessaloniki before or after his key speech.

33.5%, measured in N.D. early in the pre-election period is considered a satisfactory starting point. An assessment that is constantly discussed over morning coffee is that N.D. with anything above 33%, he can be optimistic about the goal of a self-reliant runoff that seems (almost) inevitable. Analysis of the survey, however, shows that in order to mathematically avoid the case of the formation of a “failed government”, N.D. rise above 35%, which means that it currently lacks at least 1.5%, which it needs to return from the remaining 6%. Hence the fight on two fronts that the prime minister started, addressing, on the one hand, the Center, putting forward the DNA of his government, undeniably reformist, and on the other hand, traditionally right-wing, as predicted.

Former presidents

Antonis Samaras, after his stay in Kalamata last Friday, where he supported the government and Kyriakos Mitsotakis, will also speak at an event on May 9 in Zappeion, dedicated to the anniversary of Greece’s accession to the EEC. Colleagues of the ex-premier emphasize that the statement will be “complete”, which means that it will deal with the current political situation, as well as the stakes for the national elections on May 21. At the same time, Kostas Karamanlis’ colleagues point out that his own Zappeion speech is expected to revolve mainly around the relationship between Greece and Europe and how it has developed over time until today. However, given that the event will take place just 12 days before the election, this in any case gives it a pre-election flair that Mr. Karamanlis is expected to somehow capture. Before the elections, his statement is also expected in the keynote speech of Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Thessaloniki.