“Recep Tayyip Erdogan builds the election agenda in such a way that even if he loses, he will still be the winner in the end and will soon return to power.” This forecast was shared with K by one of the most authoritative political scientists in Turkey, who has contacts both with the government camp and with members of the opposition, since he is respected by both sides. He emphasizes that today in Turkey everyone works according to two scenarios. 60% predict the victory of Kemal Kılıçdaroglu and 40% the re-election of Erdoğan.

Polls show that the future of Turkey will be decided in the second round of the presidential elections on May 28, since according to all the polls, neither Erdogan nor his opponent will gain the coveted 50% + 1 in the first round.

However, in any case, victory or defeat, it is said that the President of Turkey is the one who will determine the future of the country. “Erdogan is definitely fighting for victory in these elections as well. He improves his performance and is already approaching Kılıçdaroğlu, who is ahead by 2 to 5 points. However, as an experienced politician, the Turkish president is preparing for all possibilities, including his own defeat,” the political scientist says.

“If re-elected, he will continue his work with many problems in the economy, but he will have a defeated opposition ahead of him with six parties that will take time to find a new leader. It will take them years to regroup and face Erdogan in the 2028 presidential election!” The same source claims that “Erdogan seems to be leading the opposition wherever he wants and trapping it. If he loses, the winner of Kılıçdaroğlu will get an earthquake-hit country with a devastated economy and huge deficits, with an empty central bank coffers. He must take extreme drastic measures. He may be forced to apply to the IMF. At the same time, the Turkish president promises that housing will be handed over to the victims of the earthquake within a year. If Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu does not deliver them, which is most likely, he will face popular discontent.”

Even if he loses, Erdogan will leave an exhausted economy, making it very difficult for the next government to come.

Where the opposition really runs the risk of stumbling is in its promise to change the presidential system, which requires 50% + 1 for the winner. “It will be a gift to Mr. Erdogan,” the analyst explains. “Today he himself cannot admit that he made a mistake and change the regime himself. But Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party has a stable percentage of 34% to 36%. All polls show this. This has not changed even in the most difficult economic times. As soon as the opposition changes government, in the midst of the economic crisis that everyone takes for granted in the background, the Turkish President can force Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu into early elections, perhaps take his supporters to the streets, and at the same time to the municipal elections. win the majority. Thus, he will return as a powerful prime minister, since more than 34% of the votes will be able to bring him independence.”

Contrary to this analysis, Oksijen columnist Mehmet Yılmaz argues that “Erdogan does not have a rabbit in a hat, he does not have the means to carry out a classic election campaign and stop the impoverishment of the people. Since he understood this, he is trying to gain time and bring the elections to the second round. He is counting on conservative voters who do not vote for him in the first round not to go to the polls in the second round, and he believes that this is enough to win.”

However, most political scientists believe that the Turkish president predicts not only his next steps, but also the ones to come. Poll companies are predicting a derby. This is also the reason why many doubt how the victims of the earthquake will vote, since millions of citizens have left their homes and live in the western provinces, and no one knows how and where they will exercise their right to vote.

Officially, 50,000 people died in the February 6 earthquake. However, residents of 11 provinces and many members of the rescue teams claim that the number of deaths is many times higher. Concerns have been raised that there is a possibility that “even the dead will vote”. “In areas affected by the earthquake, many identification cards were found among the rubble. We must prevent others from using these identities. At the moment, if someone who looks like the real owner gets an ID card, they can vote instead of him,” says Ahu Sun, general secretary of the public organization Oi ve Otesi, in an interview with Oksijen. newspaper. The Turkish authorities deny these claims and say that the names of the victims of the earthquake will not be included in the voter lists. But this applies to official figures. The opposition is studying information about the unregistered dead.