This Greek-Turkish honeymoon creates realistic expectations for a period of calm in the Aegean that can be used to revive the ultimate goal of an agreement that will resolve their differences.

Such an assessment was expressed in “K” by Professor of Kadir Has University in Istanbul, President of the Council on Foreign Relations of Turkey Mustafa Aydin. He also recommends that Athens maintain radio silence until the Turkish elections in order to avoid any exploitation of a statement or position on bilateral issues in the context of the neighbor’s election campaign, which gives Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu an equal chance of winning the elections.

He believes that twice Greece and Turkey were close to an agreement that they did not ratify with a signature, because there were elections ahead. In particular, Mr. Aydin will take part in the 8th Delphi Economic Forum, which will be held April 26-29 in Delphi.

“Already before the earthquake, there was a form of pressure from both sides, in the sense that the people of Greece and Turkey expected the two leaders to do something. The tension had reached a very high level and there was now a risk of a dangerous escalation. There was even an attempt by the two leaders to somewhat contain the atmosphere. The earthquake was the reason to move with greater speed in this direction. Greece’s support has meant that the voices of prejudice are heard less in Turkey. Thus, it became more difficult for Turkish politicians to be aggressive towards Greece.

“I think it will last for a while. I certainly do not expect a return of electoral tension in Turkey. But it seems that we will see this dynamic after the elections.

So far the chances are 50/50.

“Honestly, I’m not sure. Some believe that the opposition will be more negotiable. However, Greek-Turkish relations are a national issue in both Greece and Turkey. The opposition also has radical wings that could lead to even more tension. On the other hand, the leaders of the opposition are more moderate, and here we should really expect a change, at least in rhetoric, with more emphasis on diplomacy. At the same time, we must remember that Erdogan has also sought good relations with Greece in the past. Turkey’s attitude towards Greece is always determined by a combination of factors – see the international situation or the domestic political situation in both countries. In conclusion, we are indeed likely to see less tension compared to the last two years, whichever government appears in Turkey.

After the elections, there will be enough room to prepare an agreement between Athens and Ankara.

– In 2003-2004 and 2010, the two countries were very close to agreements on Aegean issues. But at both stages, both Greece and Turkey weighed their domestic policies and put off signing agreements until after the election. When you have the momentum of an agreement, you must act at that moment and with its signature. Now the two countries have the knowledge and experience to solve problems in the Aegean. If they have the will, they can enter into bilateral negotiations and reach the stage of signing an agreement. In my opinion, a window of opportunity is opening. Because after the simultaneous election contests in Turkey and Greece, there will be no national elections for a long time. Therefore, there will be enough time to prepare and sign the contract.

“Nothing came into my mind. Earlier, when there were conditions for an agreement, PASOK was in the government. As for Erdogan and Tsipras, they had a relatively good relationship. There were no particular crises, despite initial estimates. With Mitsotakis, the expectations were different, but in practice it did not work out. So it always depends on the wider circumstances.

– Firstly, no statements before the elections. Do not discuss Turkey and Greek-Turkish before the elections. Everything that is said will be exaggerated in the Turkish press and used in the election campaign. Then it is especially important for all Turkish parties to sit down and talk to the Greek government one on one. This does not mean that difficult negotiations should begin immediately. But there is a clear preference for bilateral negotiations on these issues. Whenever there is an impression that Greece is trying to attract the EU. or the United States in bilateral matters, it always causes a negative reaction in Turkey.

– When the US actually refused to participate in the EastMed gas pipeline, this development was well received in Turkey. There are groups in Turkey that are negative about the American position in Greece, which also played a role in supporting forces in Ukraine. This concerns not so much Greece as the United States, that is, Ankara’s relations with Washington. The US has always played an important role in Greek-Turkish relations, especially when it had to mediate to prevent a clash. But in recent years, rightly or wrongly, the prevailing impression in Turkey is that the US is closer to Greece than to Turkey. It will certainly help if, after the elections, the United States returns this bias to Turkey. Until then, any further American intervention will be viewed negatively in Turkey.