Temporary Suspension of the Possibility of a Serious Greek-Turkish Crisis, as it arose after the shock of the earthquakes, and the subsequent vigorous attempt to approach Ankara and Athens, caused a feeling of relief in the major Western capitals. As the war in Ukraine continues and the possibility of a split in NATO in the event of an incident in the Aegean was more than noticeable in Washington, Berlin and Paris. “calm waters” in the Aegean means “one less problem”..

Given the very clear position of the government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis on the Ukraine issue, there is relative concern, especially in Washington, about whether the election will lead to a situation of continuity that could affect Athens’ position on this front. Of course, given the excellent relationship between the governments of Alexis Tsipras and the US agent, and the good contact that Nikos Androulakis maintains with him, a significant shift in this matter cannot be considered very likely.

On the whole, however, Washington’s attitude towards the possibility of Mr. Mitsotakis’ re-election as prime minister is clearly positive. The collaboration over the past four years has paid off. The connection between Greece and the United States is considered safe from the American point of view, based on data from past years. Under Mr. Tsipras as prime minister, a strategic dialogue between Greece and the United States was launched, and Athens managed to close a decades-old nomenklatura dispute with Skopje with a Prespa agreement, scoring a few points in Washington. Mr Androulakis, who has served in the European Parliament for nearly nine years, is known for his views on the need for greater EU independence. from the United States, however, PASOK is also not expecting a shocking differentiation.

Athens’ partners in Washington, Brussels, Paris and Berlin may consider the Ukrainian and Greek-Turkish fronts relatively controllable in the near term, but the same cannot be said for the electoral process itself. Contacts with party representatives are regular, and it is typical for diplomats stationed in Athens to understand how protracted political unrest or government instability is likely if subsequent – visible – electoral procedures are not followed. lead to a stable result. In short, the respondents are wondering how a government can be formed if the first and especially the second elections in July do not lead to a definite form.

Multilevel cooperation with Greece is considered guaranteed from the American point of view.

Despite the fact that both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz face quite serious problems at home, there are separate channels between Athens and Paris and Berlin through which all possible options are discussed.

According to informed sources “K”While it is still clear in important European capitals that there will be a “hard deal” to form a government in the July elections, there is also a scenario of failure leading to a third round of elections. The European diplomats in Athens are dusting off the last historical period when this happened (1989-90), not because they expect a similar scenario to repeat itself, but mainly because they are referring to the tectonic changes made within the Greek political system. . double elections in 2012. And, of course, one wonders whether such prolonged instability can lead to some kind of understanding between the first two parties, without, of course, harboring any illusions about whether such a thing is actually possible.

There is a fundamental difference in the approach of Washington and the Europeans to the situation in Greece. In the case of the US, it is decisive that the emerging government usually continues the strategic direction that Greece has in matters of geopolitical importance (Ukraine, Eastern Mediterranean, Western Balkans), regardless of its color. An amendment to the Mutual Defense Cooperation Agreement (MDCA), allowing for an indefinite, multi-year extension of the American military base in Greece, is seen by Washington as a guarantee of continuity. Negotiations began on SYRIZA and ended on ND with little disagreement on the substance of the text, despite corresponding public controversy between the two parties.

On the contrary, in Brussels, Berlin and Paris, in addition to whether a new stable government can be achieved, there is also a discussion about a coalition mix, if, of course, cooperation between two or more parties is needed. . They wonder, among other things, how stable the ND-PASOK government can be, as Mr. Androulakis has previously highlighted the issue of wiretapping as a dominant element of his campaign. In addition, looking at the inside, that is, the instability of the three-party coalition in Germany and the significant inability of Mr. Macron to govern France, they are concerned about the possibility of either far-right or far-left parties entering parliament.