According to Politico, after the “narrow victory” Orpo is expected to start.difficult negotiations” with potential government partners. Parliamentary balance sheets the day after the election are very similar fragile. The conservative Orpo party managed to win 48 out of 200 parliamentary seats, while outgoing Prime Minister Sana Marin’s Social Democrats won 43 seats. At the same time, the far-right “Finns”, like the second party now, “control” 46 seats in the new parliament.

As for the previously smaller partners in Marin’s government, both the Centers, the Green Party, and the Left Alliance were significantly “caught”.

New political scene and the role of far-right “Finns”

This is how it works in Finland new political scenein which Orpo, as leader of the first party, will have to decide which political forces to work with in order to form a majority coalition.

What is certain is that each option presents a challenge for the centre-right leader. For example, a possible partnership with the Social Democrats would present both sides with numerous conflicting and opposing political positions and seems particularly difficult..

The NKP has entered the election season, clearly speaking of cost reduction welfarein order to achieve a more “balanced” state budget, while for the Social Democrats, the central election commitment was to increase taxation on the highest incomes, as well as to take measures to strengthen work.

If, on the other hand, Orpo turns to the right end of the political spectrum and lends a hand of cooperation to the far-right “Party of Finns”, then the big problem of this political “marriage” will concern different bipartisan approaches to immigration policy. It is noted that the centre-right PNK believes that a possible “influx of people” into the country could give an impetus to the internal labor market, while the “Party of Finns” purely expresses anti-immigrant positionsfocusing his campaign rhetoric on the identification of criminal phenomena with immigration flows.

The aforementioned contrast between the two potential state partners comes at a time when Finland is on the verge of a climax perennial labor shortage problem. Indicative is the recognition by the Ministry of Finance of serious shortcomings in at least 56 sectors, as reported by Dweche Welle.

“Mathematics” and political obstacles

OUR Orpohowever, states that his political priority the day after the polls close is fighting recession in Finland, and this position is perceived as a “sign” of a possible transition of the center-right leader to the far-right “Finns” party. “We are starting negotiations on the formation of a government, while the economy is the “core” of discussions,” these were his words and a possible “turning a blind eye” to the ultra-right leadership, which takes similar positions regarding the economic “reorganization” of Finland.

Political facts, however, pose other challenges to Orpos, which smaller parties will also have to deal with. A potential partner, in fact, the Center Party, which has been consistent for eight years in cooperation with the government, after the historically low percentage it has scored, does not seem willing to enter into a new government “adventure”.

And what about the government formation schedule that Orpo has? According to the Guardian, during the week the winner of the election will address other political forces, thereby initiating a policy dialogue. However, in Finland negotiations usually last weeks or even more than a month.

What does Marina’s defeat mean at home and abroad

As for the left forces, the loss of Marina seems like a major blow both inside and outside of Finland. Moreover, this is a political figure who, during his four years in office, has created a rather strong image of a modern, progressive leader who has positively attracted international public opinion to the policies that he has adopted to combat the pandemic. but also for the reflexes he has shown since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

So what went wrong with a politician who has been receiving international recognition for four years both for his political choices and for his “modern” and “subversive” personality? According to Politico, Marin failed to convince the electorate of the “left” management of the economy that she proposed. The country’s public debt has increased during her tenure, while her decision to fund welfare policies through borrowing has not convinced Finns, while in the adverse economic environment, the necessary defense spending caused by the country’s NATO accession processes has undermined trust in leadership. 39 year old politician.

And what about the political future of Marin? Four years after becoming the world’s youngest prime minister and having a significant impact on Western pop culture, Marin conceded defeat on election night and congratulated her political opponent. However, this does not mean that her political career ends there. The publications claim that even before the elections, her associates talked about the possibility of applying for some kind of European post, even for the presidency of the Commission with the support of left-progressive forces.

The next day

A day after the elections, it becomes clear that, despite the objective difficulties, the primacy of political movements belongs to Peter Orpo. And over time, the candidate of the party that comes out first takes the post of Prime Minister of Finland. This is an unwritten rule that has been followed by everyone without exception since 1987 – provided, of course, that he can get a majority in parliament.

Until that happens, the two safest conclusions from an otherwise difficult political landscape. The first concerns the immediate end of the country’s NATO membership process, which all major parties, even the far right, agreed to before the election. “Tomorrow we will welcome Finland as our 31st member,” Jens Stoltenberg said today, adding that the Finnish flag will fly over the Alliance headquarters in Brussels.

The second conclusion concerns a “right turn” in the country’s orientation and central political directions. Orpo’s approach in favor of a policy that included both fiscal austerity and tax cuts convinced the Finns, albeit marginally, more than the model pursued by Marin and her progressive allies.

Given these political associations, analysts do not rule out the formation of a state structure in Finland along the lines of the Swedish conservative alliance that arose a few months ago. Social Democracy, on the other hand, although it has grown stronger quantitatively, is losing its government. After the failure of the re-elections of the Social Democrats in Sweden and the right “turn” of the Danish Social Democrats in order to “survive” the elections, the progressive “star” Marina seems to be “going out” in Finland as well.