In December 2021, when the opportunity arises Russian military invasion of Ukraine it was another… possibility, not reality, h Moscow put in front of her NATO West set of eight dots, shaped security guaranteeswhich must – according to Kremlin – to be content to defuse the tension around the Ukrainian, which began to grow, putting forward scenarios for a Russian invasion in the spring of 2021.

In the context of these “negotiations” (cf. draft treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees), Russia demanded the withdrawal of all NATO troops and weapons systems from countries that joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization after 1997 (see Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, etc.). It also calls for blocking any further eastward expansion of NATO, keeping Ukraine, Georgia, and all former Soviet republics out of the North Atlantic Alliance, and for an end to all US military cooperation with the armed forces of the former Soviet republics that make up the Soviet Union.

What did Moscow ask for before the war?

OUR Steven Piferonce the US Ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000) on December 21, 2021, through an article published on the website of the Brookings Institution, was asked if these requests were made by Moscow with the real purpose of rejecting them for a refusal?).

Seventeen years after NATO’s last major eastward expansion (which was its 2004) and seven years later Crimean crisis 2014 (which caused alarm on the eastern flank of NATO regarding the position of the Kremlin), the Russian side apparently demanded things that could not be accepted Poland and the Baltic…

“Russia demands security guarantees, but what Putin really needs is Ukraine,” Yulian Romanishin (CASSIS, University of Bonn, Egmont Institute, AIA-NRW) wrote on the Atlantic Council website on February 4, 2022, twenty days after the start of the war. Russian invasion.

What happened next is now more or less known. Side of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin decided on a military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, thereby resetting the counter and starting over. The Russian leader recognized the independence of his self-proclaimed “people’s democracies”. Donetsk and his Lugansk February 21, 2022, and then… attacked KyivV Kharkiv And in Kherson.

Profit and loss

Thirteen months later, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues… with no apparent solution, and Moscow is counting on territorial gains (in Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson And Zaporozhye), but also losses.

OUR Finlanda country that has a common border with Russia of 1340 kilometers, also officially becomes, starting tomorrow, April 4, the 31st member NATO. In fact, the process of joining the alliance, which lasted several months, is considered the fastest in the modern history of the alliance. Recall that on May 18, 2022, Helsinki officially applied for membership in NATOand July 5, 2022, when the corresponding accession protocol was signed. Nine months later, the process is complete. “Tomorrow we welcome Finland as our 31st member,” said Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, calling the day a “historic day.” The Norwegian believes that Sweden’s entry into NATO is only a matter of time, despite Turkey’s objections, which, according to Stoltenberg, will break down at some point.

If we accept as truth (and not pretentiousness) what Moscow demanded as security guarantees from NATO-West in December 2021, then events are now moving in a direction (strengthening, expanding and uniting NATO) that is exactly the opposite of what Moscow wanted. Ukraine and Georgia will practically not become members of the Alliance in the near future. However, the defense landscape around these countries is currently undergoing changes, further limiting the limits of Russia’s potential military maneuvers.

News from the front

This new reality could even be “worth” as a “price” for Moscow if Russia, in the meantime, managed to achieve a major military victory without asterisks and “yes, buts” on its open front. Ukrainianbut that hasn’t happened yet.

On the contrary, clouds over eastern Ukraine not only remain, but are gathering, not only for the defending Ukrainians, but also for the Russians, who continue to fight, but without a clearly formulated goal. If Russian forces succeed in capturing the entire territory of Donetsk (including Bakhmut), will they consider their mission in Ukraine accomplished or not? There is no answer to this question yet.

Flaws

On the contrary, there are cracks and gaps in the messages coming from the Russian side. Minister of Defense of Russia, Sergei Shoigureportedly acknowledged that Russian forces were beginning to dwindle ammunition. According to Western (or rather, British) sources, it was precisely the lack of ammunition that prevented the Russian troops from “taking” Bahamut, despite the many months and bloody battles that preceded it. By the way, this is exactly what the powerful man of the mercenary Wagner did not denounce, Evgeny Prigozhinrelatively recently, directing his “friendly” fire of criticism at the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu;

On the other hand, President Putin is said to be preparing for a new mobilization in the coming months after the partial mobilization that preceded it in September 2022, while the American Institute for the Study of War anticipates new leadership changes. Russian Armed Forces after the removal of Sergei Surovikin, who preceded him in January last year.

But even within Russia, the picture is far from clear. Hours before being arrested by Russian authorities as a “spy” on March 29 in Yekaterinburg, Ivan Gershkovich published an article in the Wall Street Journal about the problems that the Russian economy “actually” began to face 13 months later. war, given that the second year of the war will practically be much more difficult for Moscow than the first 12 months preceding it.

But even at the level of cohesion and security, internal Russian disagreements have already appeared. The murders of Darya Dugina last August in Moscow and military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky last Sunday in St. Petersburg, identify the security holes that allowed attacks (in both cases involving explosives) to take place in Russia’s largest cities. Both Alexander Dugin’s daughter and Tatarsky (or Maxim Fomin, as his real name) were ardent supporters of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but as part of their ultra-nationalist stance, the dead also criticized (especially Tatarsky) other members of the Russian elite. society might not like it.

Who killed Tatarsky?

If they were killed by Ukrainians or by forces close to Kyiv, then someone should apologize for precisely the fact that these forces were able to carry out bombing raids inside Russian cities. If, on the other hand, they were killed by the Russians, then one should worry about the murderous rivalry that is arising within Russia against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.

“Who is behind the murder of Putin’s propagandist?” Mr. Mark Galeotti (Professor at UCL and author of numerous books about Russia) on the pages of the British Spectator. Trying to give an answer in the form of an estimate, Galeotti makes a number of rather interesting observations, emphasizing that:

• OUR Vladlen Tatarskywho was killed on Sunday Saint PetersburgEvgeny Prigozhin has recently begun to establish close ties with her Wagner
• The store where he was killed (Streetfood Bar No. 1) belonged to Prigozhin until 2020.
• The group of individuals to whom it was presented (Cyberfront Z) has at times been highly critical of the institutionally official Russian armed forces and their leadership.
• Wagnerovsky Prigozhin, who allegedly supported Tatarsky financially, in the past “quarreled” not only with the Minister of Defense Shoigu but also with the governor of St. Petersburg Alexander Beglovwhile he was “at odds” with another – extremely social media active – Russian nationalist, Igor Girkinknown as “Strelkov“…