Eleven years after the 2012 double elections, the country is likely to find itself in a double election again, as the simple analogy of the first Sunday and the conditions set by the protagonists of the political landscape for government cooperation make it difficult to form a government. A feature of the pre-election period we are experiencing, which makes forecasts about the election results uncertain, is the high percentage of voters classified by election campaigns as belonging to the so-called “grey zone”. In the latest Pulse poll, the “gray zone” i.e. undecided, white, disabled, abstention was 17.5%, a significant increase from previous measurements and largely a result of the backlash caused by the tragedy. Tempe.

If we look for similarities and differences between the 2012 election atmosphere and the current one, an increased percentage of undecided votes is a common occurrence. Then the “gray zone” was measured 15 days before the elections in May 2012, when the ban on the publication of public opinion polls was activated, at 19.5%. Of course, as Pulse General Manager Giorgos Arapoglu points out, in the last stretch before the election, the gray zone showed a downward trend, since in the previous measurement it was 21%, and before that it was even higher.

In this last measurement, a rapid decrease in the percentage of ND, which was found at 17.5%, and PASOK, which was measured at 12%, as well as a dynamic increase in the percentage of SYRIZA from about 4% a year ago. at 9%. The two weeks following polls, which were conducted but not made public, showed that SYRIZA and A.A. they were the only parties that continued to gain strength, registered an upward trend with a decrease in the share of the “gray zone”.

Abstention metrics and how the electorate behaved in the previous double vote. Usually in the second election, the two main gladiators are strengthened.

“If we draw any conclusion from that period and in general from the experience of public opinion polls, it is that it is not easy to single out a “gray zone” in times of difficult political conditions. Usually, during smooth periods, it seems to move evenly and, in the end, is divided between the parties almost proportionally, based on their percentage. However, in the first elections in 2012, we saw these voters move towards SYRIZA and AA, while the other parties from this pool did not win,” adds Mr. Arapoglu.

The differences between the current period and 2012 are significant: the recorded “grey zone” has increased in measurements after Tempi was mainly fed by ND and if this holds, it is assumed that this will be visible in the second wave of surveys, when the effect of more emotional and tense reaction of voters. At the same time, SYRIZA, significantly enhanced in 2012, no longer means fresh and new, as it was tested. Apart from them, no significant support for either side was recorded. The third PASOK seems compressed, and the profits of the smaller ones are too small to talk about a change in image and new data. Until now, it was more about the possibility of forming a coalition government or the possibility of achieving self-sufficiency.

It is also difficult to compare with the second elections in 2012, since the situation is completely different. “Then, uncertainty, anger, anxiety prevailed, it was the era of memorandums, restrictive measures and the prospect of a more difficult situation in the near future. Now many of these elements do not exist, and the prospects for the near future are quite optimistic,” Mr. Arapoglu comments. In the second elections in 2012, N.D. and SYRIZA each scored over 10 percentage points, even though there was also a gain in abstentions, reaching 37.5%. Experience shows that usually two main gladiators are strengthened in the re-election and this rule was confirmed in 2012. From the ND. the increase in the percentage, that +10%, was the result of the extreme polarization and the very clear dilemmas that were posed, as well as the bipartisan expansion in the last stretch of the second election. “In the first election in May 2012, the ND turned to the right, it moved away from the middle space. Dora Bakoyannis came with her company. In the second elections, all this changed and a strategy of bilateral expansion was chosen, which brought results,” says Mr. Arapoglu. SYRIZA was largely supported by the total collapse of PASOK, which continued to lose momentum and its voters largely moved on to what they saw as a new perspective.

Is there room for such a significant rate hike now? The 17.5% gray area shows that numerically there is a margin. Of course, the peculiarity remains that this tank was reinforced more on the BUT side.