Why Putin Is Deploying Tactical Nukes In Belarus
On March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued new threats against Western countries that support Ukraine, announcing an agreement with Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the country. For the first time since the mid-1990s, the Kremlin intends to plant nuclear warheads outside the country. Putin also said that the Russian Federation would complete construction of a nuclear weapons storage facility in Belarus by July.
However, concerns over rising nuclear tensions between Russia and the United States resurfaced even earlier after Russia suspended participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-3) on February 28. This bilateral agreement limits the number of strategic nuclear weapons each country can have, but does not cover the number of tactical warheads.
There is currently no verified information on how many tactical nuclear weapons Russia has. According to a Reuters report, the US believes Moscow has around 2,000 active tactical warheads, about 10 times as many as Washington.
USA: Russia is not preparing for the use of nuclear weapons
In response to Putin’s latest remarks, the US said there were no signs that Russia was preparing to use nuclear weapons. “We see no reason to adjust our own position on strategic nuclear weapons, nor any indication that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons,” the State Department said, noting that the United States “remains committed to the collective defense of NATO ” and we intend to follow the development of the situation.
Putin’s announcement did not come as a surprise to Europe and NATO, Bruno Lete, a security and defense expert at the German Marshall Fund in the United States, told DW, as “it is part of a larger trend over the past year where Russia stepped up its nuclear rhetoric”. “But after Russia suspended the START-3 treaty, fears remain that it could deploy nuclear weapons without any controls. This is not good for peace and security, and it would be better if this treaty remained in force,” he added. .
What are tactical nuclear weapons for?
Tactical nuclear weapons are used to destroy targets on the battlefield and can replace conventional warheads in conventional weapons systems. They need a delivery system like Iskander missiles, the short-range ballistic missiles Russia has used to launch conventional warheads into Ukraine and Syria.
“Tactical nuclear weapons are launched only to obtain results on the battlefield and are not aimed at attacking the city. They are smaller warheads, they can have a yield of up to 100 kilotons depending on the target”, said William Alberk, a specialist in strategy. , technology, and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
In comparison, strategic nuclear weapons are delivered to their target using intercontinental missiles and are capable of destroying an entire city. “This weapon could be launched from, say, Russian territory to hit US territory. The yield of such a warhead is more than 100 kilotons, or at least five times that of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and it could do a lot of damage. .damage.damage,” Alberk said.
NPT not violated
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) obliges States that possess them not to help or induce non-nuclear powers to manufacture or acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices. In a March 25 statement, Putin argued that the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus was not a violation of that agreement. “This is also not unusual: the United States has been doing this for decades. It has long placed its tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of its allies,” he was quoted as saying by Russian state news agency TASS.
Under the treaty, the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom have the right to possess nuclear weapons. While they cannot transfer nuclear weapons or technology to a non-nuclear power, they can deploy them outside its borders. Putin stressed that Russia would retain control over nuclear weapons deployed under non-proliferation agreements. Currently, US nuclear weapons are deployed in Europe in countries such as Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.
“Belarus is increasingly losing national sovereignty”
The US deployment of nuclear weapons in parts of Europe is part of NATO’s collective defense strategy, said Stefan Scheller, Security and Defense Program Officer at the German Foreign Policy Society (DGAP). “NATO has a concept called ‘nuclear exchange’. It is a long-standing policy of nuclear deterrence, which ensures that the benefits, responsibilities and risks of nuclear deterrence are shared among all members of the alliance. It aims to ensure the security of allies” , he explained.
William Alberk shares a similar view and notes that US-owned tactical weapons are designed solely to destroy military formations or critical military infrastructure such as military barracks. “It wasn’t conceived as a strategic weapon designed to defeat Moscow or St. Petersburg or anything like that,” he said.
Regarding Putin’s use of Belarus as a launch site for tactical nuclear weapons, Scheller pointed out that the decision was announced only by Putin, and not during a press conference with Lukashenka. “This is a clear sign that Belarus is increasingly losing its national sovereignty,” he said.
Only thanks to Putin, Lukashenka was able to retain power in Minsk, cracking down on mass protests against fraud in the presidential elections of the second half of 2020 and early 2021. In 2022, Lukashenka held a referendum, after which a new constitution was adopted: in it , Belarus abandoned the country’s non-nuclear status.
What might NATO’s response be?
According to Bruno Lete, Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus means it can attack NATO territory much more quickly, so “NATO has less time to react”. “So either NATO continues its nuclear deterrence, which the alliance is already doing, or it can engage in nuclear coercion against Russia to discourage it from deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus. NATO will continue nuclear deterrence,” he added.
Source: DW
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