Do Russian nuclear weapons make Belarus a target?
30 years ago, Belarus removed nuclear weapons from its territory, and the then head of the country, Stanislav Shushkevich, considered this a great achievement. “My motivation was very simple. Belarus was to be destroyed as a state, as a nation, as an ethnic group, because in its territory – and it was hostage to that – there were these weapons, strategic and tactical. Europe could be destroyed by what it was on the territory of Belarus (…) If there is a conflict, the West has no other salvation than a nuclear strike in the area, which is Belarus,” he told the TV program “Visiting Dmitry Gordon. “
In 2023, nuclear weapons can return to Belarus. As Russian President Vladimir Putin said on March 25, there are about 10 aircraft capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons and the Iskander missile system. In addition, he announced that in July of this year the construction of a tactical nuclear weapons storage facility would be completed in Belarus. At the same time, the weapon will not be transferred to Minsk, it’s just a matter of placement.
What does this mean for Belarus?
“Nuclear Fortress of the Soviet Union”
“Cooperation in this area between Russia and Belarus has been talked about for a long time,” says Pavel Podvig, a researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Studies in Geneva. In February 2022, the constitution was amended in Belarus, the words about the status of free of nuclear weapons disappeared from the document, “opening up the legal possibility of deploying nuclear warheads on the territory of Belarus.”
Military expert Alexander Alesin emphasizes that “a certain number of nuclear weapons carriers” were prepared before Putin made his announcement. He remembers that in Soviet times “Belarus was a nuclear stronghold of the Soviet Union”. Approximately two-thirds of all Soviet medium- and short-range missiles and their warheads were located on the country’s territory.
“After all these weapons were withdrawn, Lukashenka refused in principle to liquidate the infrastructure that ensured the storage and use of these missiles, if necessary,” says the expert.
Of course, over time these storages may fail, but Alesin admits that a certain amount has been preserved in usable condition: “It is possible that one of the more or less preserved storages will be modernized and adapted to serve as a storage of nuclear energy weapons “.
Are Russian nuclear weapons carriers Belarusian?
Alesin notes that, according to Putin, 10 nuclear-armed aircraft were trained in Belarus with the help of the Russian Federation. “Most likely, we are talking about Soviet-made SU-24 front-line bombers, which were originally intended to carry out nuclear strikes with a breakthrough air defense system at low altitude.”
According to the expert, in Belarus, according to data for 2011, there were 35 such aircraft, some of them bombers, others reconnaissance aircraft. Following the relinquishment of nuclear weapons on these aircraft, elements of on-board radio-electronic equipment and weapons controls that could ensure the use of nuclear weapons were dismantled.
In 2012, the bombers were decommissioned and sent for conservation and storage, some were sold to South Sudan. “But it is obvious that a certain amount remained and these aircraft were modernized in the Sukhoi company,” said Alesin.
In addition, Belarus already has Iskander-M complexes, which, according to their technical characteristics, are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Meanwhile, Pavel Podvig emphasizes that “the presence of a repository does not mean that something will be stored there”: “There are precedents in Russian practice – when the repository was built, however, it remained empty for many years. In Kaliningrad, for example “, the storage could still be empty – we don’t know for sure. I think with a very high probability there will be no real movement and deployment of warheads in Belarus.”
Obligations of Belarus and Russia
Belarus and Russia are parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Will they violate their obligations if nuclear weapons return to Belarus? Experts believe that formally there will be no violation.
“There is no talk of transferring nuclear weapons to Belarus (…). The practice of storing nuclear weapons on the territory of another state, training the personnel of this state in the handling of these weapons, including the use of these weapons, already existed in mid-1960s in the United States and NATO, and therefore it was generally accepted that this practice does not contradict the treaty”, says Pavel Podvig. The Soviet Union then recognized that such an approach was in line with the treaty. NATO continued this practice. Now, for example, American nuclear weapons are deployed in five countries – Germany, Holland, Belgium, Italy and Turkey.
However, the expert draws attention to the fact that Russia since the mid-2010s has claimed that the practice of deploying weapons in other countries, the practice of training and training of personnel, contradicts the NPT. “This position has been officially confirmed many times. And on March 25 it was stated exactly the opposite, that Russia will do everything that the United States does, and this does not violate its obligations. It turns out that the position has changed,” says Podvig.
Belarus becomes a target?
“This step will not give any additional security to either Belarus or Russia. This is a political signal, if you like, about a closer union and should be perceived that way,” believes expert Pavel Podvig.
In his opinion, there are not so many additional risks: “Another nuclear weapons deposit appears, there is the possibility that it will also be empty. In that sense, it will not even be the target of any type of attack or any type of action. must be dramatized beyond what is necessary.”
Political analyst Artem Shraibman believes that in such a situation, Belarus will become a target if the war between Russia and Ukraine moves to a more global level – clashes between Russia and NATO. “It is clear that the missiles will fly to the Belarusian tactical nuclear weapons storage sites and airfields, because they can be used to launch aircraft and to the missile systems that the Russians have transferred. This is a threat to the residents of the nearby cities and the whole country, depending on how powerful attacks will be. Belarus is becoming a potential battleground, this is the main risk.”
Moreover, he notes that a Russian military base or a new Russian contingent will appear in the country with nuclear weapons: “I would also call the expansion of the Russian military presence a kind of risk for the people of Belarus, because we are, in the truth, plunging into military integration”. In his opinion, the country’s isolation “is likely to deepen”: “It will be more difficult to justify why sanctions against Belarus should remain more lenient than those against Russia.”
Alexander Alesin also speaks of “an escalation, a kind of aggravation of relations.” However, he believes that on the territory of Belarus, even without nuclear weapons, there are several important strategic facilities that “are potential targets for American nuclear weapons”, such as a missile attack warning system near Gantsevichi and a radio station. communication with nuclear weapons submarines in Vileyka, inherited by the country from the USSR. Now, “in addition to these objects, some more targets will appear”, says the expert. “But in principle, if a nuclear war starts, it won’t make much difference how much ammunition is used against a country like Belarus,” he concludes.
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Source: DW
Anna White is a journalist at 247 News Reel, where she writes on world news and current events. She is known for her insightful analysis and compelling storytelling. Anna’s articles have been widely read and shared, earning her a reputation as a talented and respected journalist. She delivers in-depth and accurate understanding of the world’s most pressing issues.