Prominent voices in the Russian information space are increasingly preparing their audience for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Institute for the Study of War (IWV) notes in an assessment published on the night of Friday to Saturday.

The inevitability of the offensive of the Ukrainian army, which is receiving increasingly consistent military support from the West, was confirmed two days ago by the head of the Ground Forces of Kyiv.

The counteroffensive will come “very soon,” Oleksandr Syrskyi said, noting that Vladimir Putin’s invasion forces are losing momentum.

The Russians know that there is a Ukrainian counteroffensive

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmytro Medvedev, emphasized on Friday that the Russian General Staff is aware that Kyiv is preparing for offensive operations, and is considering its own decisions and responses to prepare for an offensive against Ukraine.

A prominent Russian military blogger has said that some Ukrainians are spreading disinformation about plans to attack the Belgorod region in order to draw Russian troops to border areas and allow Ukrainian troops to attack other areas of the front, partly echoing similar warnings to Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin

Another Russian blogger warned that Ukrainian forces would likely try to launch a counteroffensive before Russia’s defense industrial base could ramp up production to bolster Russia’s defense capabilities.

Similarly, on Thursday Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he knew about plans for a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive.

“Deep fright”

The Russian spring offensive seems to have passed its peak and is losing its intensity, and the Russian information space is reacting with great trepidation to the slowdown in Russian operations and Ukraine’s ability to regain the initiative on the battlefield, the Institute notes.

The Russian military command will need to transfer a significant number of forces to the front line either to prevent the slope or to resume offensive operations.

Such forces are unlikely to exist on a sufficient scale to do both, ISW notes.

In addition, the Institute for the Study of War adds, among Russian military bloggers, sharp criticism of the precious failures in the coal sector has reappeared.

This criticism likely reflects the intelligence community’s continued frustration with Russian military leaders “against a deep fear of a potential future Ukrainian counteroffensive.”

The Ukrainians resisted, now they want to take advantage of the weakening of the Russian impulse

The ISW assessment came after Prigozhin said on Thursday that Ukraine was preparing 3 strategic strikes to liberate its territory up to the 1991 borders.

Leader Wagner said that Ukraine has concentrated 200,000 reservists in Donbas, of which 80,000 are near Bakhmut.

Ukraine’s Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces said on Thursday that his forces, which have been on the defensive for four months, would launch a long-awaited counteroffensive “very soon” now that Russia’s massive winter offensive is losing momentum without taking Bakhmut.

His remarks are the most compelling evidence yet that Kyiv is on the verge of changing tactics after facing Russia’s brutal attacks this winter.

Wagner’s mercenaries “lost a significant part of their forces and lost their momentum,” said the commander of the Kyiv Ground Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.

“Very soon we will take advantage of this opportunity, as it happened in the past near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balaklia and Kupyansk,” he said, listing last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensives that recaptured significant territories.