On the sidelines of the Pantheon Institute of International Affairs conference, US Naval Academy Associate Professor Emily Holland spoke with a “K” and analyzed the energy dimension of the war in Ukraine and the energy role of the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean.

– One of the main reasons is that there were people inside these countries who benefited from this dependence. There was corruption at different levels of the chain. So in some places, like Germany, corruption was somehow built into the political system. So there were very powerful utilities that supported some of the political parties in Germany that were making a lot of money because they had a deal on cheap gas from Russia that they could later sell to their production base. Germany has built its manufacturing base and largely German economic system based on being able to plan gas prices for ten years in its business models. Elsewhere, like Bulgaria, even Ukraine before the invasion, there were people who literally made big money acting as gas intermediaries or just working with distributors to get a cut.

The US and Europe need to create “friendly” supply chains for the minerals they need.

– LNG saved the day for many countries because it provided flexibility in natural gas supplies, like the EU. moved away from Russian pipeline gas. LNG, of course, is not the answer to all questions. It is more expensive and more difficult to manage, because it has to be transported from the country in liquefied form to the terminal, regasified and transported again. So you need infrastructure. You have to build regasification terminals, floating terminals, and this process of adaptation is happening now in many places. These difficulties result in landlocked states being less able to receive LNG. Therefore, LNG does not solve all problems.

– The energy industry and global energy flows have changed so radically in recent years that you will see the emergence of new players, and this will really change a lot in dynamics. The gas fields of the Eastern Mediterranean are truly a huge boon not only for the world of energy, but also for geopolitics, and these deals can promote materialism in international relations. Certainly, Greece and other parts of the Eastern Mediterranean can become important players in global energy flows. Over the next 5-10 years, we will be in a rather tough world energy market, so prices will be inflated. Therefore, we must continue to invest in hydrocarbons in order to achieve a clean energy future. These conditions allow smaller players to have an important voice. And especially now, when energy relations between Russia and Europe have really deteriorated.

– In recent years, Europe has introduced a strategy called REPowerEU, which is a very ambitious plan to completely cut off the energy supply to Russia and then switch to clean energy very quickly. It has become clear that we are entering a new era of strategic autonomy, with countries more concerned about the dangers of interdependence, especially in the energy sector. For Europe, this means diversifying with new suppliers from, for example, North Africa and the Middle East to a range of different sources. If you have multiple suppliers, there is less fear that you will become dependent on one of them. There are challenges when it comes to clean energy, such as supply chain issues and strategic autonomy. I think the US and Western Europe should focus on how to create “friendly” supply chains for the minerals we will need to provide clean energy in the future.