Political storm erupted in France after President’s decision Emmanuel Macron activate it Article 49.3 of the Constitution allowing him to enforce the government’s proposed pension reform bill, but without having to get the vote of the National Assembly.

After a period of protracted mobilization by the unions and with fuzzy and “fragile” parliamentary data, Macron and his colleagues were in a “fever” of consultations even hours before it was time to pass the bill. the main axis of which is to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 years.

While senior officials have publicly stated that the government will not evade the parliamentary vote, Macron and his “loyal” Prime Minister Elisabeth Born invoked the controversial Article 49.3 to circumvent it.

President’s big bet

One day after the activation of said constitutional provision, and while French society remains in turmoil, Emmanuel Macron faces the most critical turning point of his presidency.

The political turmoil caused by the pension is Macron’s big bet for the day ahead: how will the French president manage to advance his political agenda in the next four years of his presidency, given that the opposition looks “emboldened” and negative parliamentary associations for him?

As the countdown to the start of the parliamentary debate on the no-confidence vote against the opposition continues, the only positive parameter that some analysts highlight is related to the political “points” that Macron can score on the international stage as a “resolute reformer.”

This view is shared by Chloe Morin, a writer and political analyst, who notes that “insurance reform is a difficult undertaking for France.”

Regarding Emmanuel Macron and his political future, Morin notes that in the face of a major political challenge, such as the issue of the pensioner, the stake and stake for the French president is to “create his own political legacy.”

In the short term, however, the stakes for the Macron government lie in the impeachment petitions filed today and expected to be debated Monday afternoon.

For the government to “fall”, a vote of no confidence must be passed by an absolute majority, i.e. 287 votes. But for this to happen, about 30 of 61 Republican congressmen would have to vote for him, and such a scenario has little chance.

However, Macron’s choice to “activate” 49.3 is a political risk in itself. A risk the government did not take lightly.

How we came to activate “49.3”

The atmosphere that has prevailed in the Elysee Palace in recent days is evidenced by Macron’s comment to his closest associates. “Politically, I have to vote, but I think the financial risks are too great at the moment.This was stated by the President of France, according to Politico.

Within a year, Macron’s party had lost its parliamentary majority. Until today, the government has relied on the votes of the right-wing Republican MPs, the Constant, which appears to have been shaken in the government’s consultations on intervention in insurance.

When the time came for the bill to be introduced in the National Assembly and Prime Minister Bourne announced the decision to enact Article 49.3, opposition MPs reacted strongly. On the one hand, the leftists booed the prime minister to the sound of the national anthem, on the other hand, the ultra-right deputies called on Bourne to resign.

“We cannot risk and risk that 175 hours of parliamentary debate will be wasted,” Born said along with the opposition immediately after the prime minister’s statements, signaling that she would continue to oppose the reform proposed by the government as with the parliamentary ones available funds at his disposal, as well as by continuing mobilizations.

Issuance of censure and continued mobilization

It is noted that the deputies of the independent Liot group announced the introduction of a “cross-party” vote of no confidence in the government in the National Assembly with 91 signatures from five opposition political groups, including the Nupes (alliance of the left). , while a vote of no confidence was also filed by far-right RN (National Rally) Marine Le Pen.

Le Pen essentially called the government’s move yesterday “Macron’s personal failure,” stressing that the French president was the one who “proposed and defended the pension proposals.” “This is his own reform,” he said.

Immediately after the recent events, demonstrations took place in many regions of France, in which there were frictions and clashes between the demonstrators and the police. For their part, the unions are calling for mass demonstrations on 23 March.

The political dispute now is not only Macron’s pension plan, but also the activation of Article 49.3. The administration’s decision to enforce this constitutional provision is itself a political risk, Politico notes.

The reason seems to be twofold. On the one hand, its activation allows deputies to submit a vote of no confidence within 24 hours. – what has already been launched – on the other hand, President Macron up to one “the risk” of further radicalization of kinetic processes that had already reached massive proportions in France in the previous period of time.

In recent months, unions have succeeded in creating the conditions for frequent and numerous demonstrations against the government as pension reform was in full swing and cleaners in Paris went on a permanent strike, leaving some 7,000 tons of rubbish piled up in the French capital. At the same time, teachers’ unions are calling for a strike next week, potentially affecting the standard high school (“undergraduate”) exams.

And while the French constitution allows governments – under certain conditions – to bypass parliament, the option of applying Article 49.3 seems – as Politico reports – more “undemocratic”, given that France is currently at the epicenter of political and social tensions, but also growing. distrust of the political system.

According to the independent MP Charles de Courson, “the reference to 49.3 is a failure for the government wing”. In his statements on the BFMTV channel, he also stated that “Macron’s parliamentary minority is a minority not only in the National Assembly, but throughout the country.”

Also of interest is the position of Federic Dube, CEO of the IFOP polling institute, who, commenting on the trends in public opinion regarding 49.3, speaks of a “turn” in how the world perceives the nature of this provision. “Her character is now seen as more authoritarian. Today, citizens are demanding more transparency and democracy,” he says.

Moreover, according to Reuters, which cites a study on behalf of RTL, more than 8 out of 10 French people say they are unhappy with the “bypass” initiative of the parliament, and 65% want the mobilization to continue.

Negative omens for Macron’s second term

However, at the same time, this “show of force” by Macron, as Politico describes it, exposes a “weakened” president who, having lost his parliamentary majority and at a time when his popularity is “falling”, has not been able to turn public opinion against him.

The government will soon face a vote of no confidence from the opposition. This is not the first time Macron’s side has been forced to “survive” a vote of no confidence. This time, however, the stakes are much higher and much more important.

“This is possibly the first time that a no-confidence vote could topple a government,” said Green Party MP Julien Bayou, adding that “the government was ready to hurt France.”

In the long term, recent developments seem to be killing prospects for closer cooperation between Macron’s party and the right-wing “Republican” party. Politico, in fact, characterizes as “a disturbing omen for Macron’s second term” the fact that the leadership of the conservative party, which until recently supported the government’s legislative initiatives, failed to rally its MPs before the decisive pension vote. .

For some reason, the politician who turned the political landscape of France upside down in 2017, “breaking” the traditional relationships and intersections between right and left, is now looking in vain for allies.

According to Politico and Reuters