Whether the tragic accident in Tempe could amplify an anti-systemic tide similar to that which led to the 2012 pre-election earthquake earlier in the last decade is difficult to answer at this time. Analyzes and the research data on which they are based are shaped in a very stressful environment. With anger and frustration reigning, it remains to be seen if and how this will play out politically and electorally.

Despite the fact that in recent years, movements with anti-systemic overtones have arisen on various occasions (for example, the anti-vaccination movement), none of the landmark events of this period had consequences comparable to the railway tragedy. Therefore, there are more chances for the revival of the anti-systemic climate today.

The fact that the majority considers the accident to be the result of many years of inability of the state to modernize its activities significantly affects the index of political trust, thus creating the basic conditions for strengthening the anti-system current.

Consequently, any positive news, even on important economic or social issues, will not be easily heard. Toxicity in public discourse will increase. Accusations from parties and the media will become more intense.

Antisystemic dynamics appear to develop more at younger ages. Pretty much to be expected, given that around the world, age gaps in political and electoral behavior are most pronounced. Millennials and Generation Z are both generations that grow up in constant crisis. This increases their insecurity and feeds their radicalism, forcing them sometimes to look for the strengthening of the welfare state, and therefore in more “leftist” manifestations, and sometimes in the logic of (social-national) strengthening, mainly strengthening the parties of anti-revolutionaries. – system law.

In particular, in our country, the conditions for the politicization of young voters cannot be ignored. Most came into contact with politics for the first time during the crisis years. The “burden of political memory” influences political behavior and consolidates approaches through the analytical prism of that radicalized period: “old – new”, “elite – people”, “systemic – anti-systemic” and all this with an excessive emotional load. Many people—not just young people, but everyone who was violently politicized during that period—find it difficult to go beyond this analytical framework.

A cold and realistic assessment of the economic and political situation does not show that the country is on the verge of a social explosion.

The accident at Tempe brings to the fore the “enemies” of the period. “Incompetent” politicians. “Corrupt Media”. All sorts of “interests” that torment the country. The tragedy also gave rise to an expression of dismay that went beyond the event itself, as had happened on other occasions in the past.

However, there are also conditions that are not favorable for further strengthening of the anti-system current.

First, there is no invincible political force that could strengthen and express this movement. At the beginning of 2012, there were indestructible parties, there was an untested and communicatively gifted emerging leader, and the old parties were falling apart from the inability to cope with the economic crisis and the responsibilities assigned to them. Everyone was tested today. None (at least the big ones) can play a similar role, and none of the smaller ones seem (at least for the moment) to have a political start like that of SYRIZA, ANEL or even the Golden Dawn in 2012. and political “disillusionment” now concerns everyone.

However, Greek society is no longer the same. Even if, under the current conditions, every mention of positive news provokes a reaction, the reality is that social and especially economic conditions in Greece today are different from those they were at the beginning of the last 10 years. A few days ago, ELSTAT reported a 5.9% rise and a further decline in unemployment. At the beginning of the last 10 years, we had a decline of 7% per year, and unemployment was over 27%. In a number of important areas, there is a sense that the situation has improved. Despite the fact that the benefits of macroeconomic improvement are not visible due to the inflationary crisis, as well as the less participation of young ages in any economic development, a cold and realistic assessment of the economic and political environment does not show the country. on the verge of a social explosion. On the contrary, the segment of the population that does not want the country to re-enter the political spiral remains significant.

Therefore, much will depend on decisions in the field of political management. For the government, the challenge is to be able to formulate a positive narrative in a particularly tense environment. And for the opposition (especially SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL), let it not be seen that it is trying to exploit the tragedy politically, but also not be drawn into rhetoric that goes beyond it.

Mr. Eftichis Vardoulakis is a strategy and communications consultant.