Message about the resumption of diplomatic relations between them Iran And her Saudi Arabia took many by surprise.

While this was generally seen as a positive development for regional stability, it leaves thorny questions unanswered, especially regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The two rival powers in the region on Friday announced a two-month deadline to reopen their embassies and other diplomatic missions. Their Chinese-brokered agreement also provides for the renewal of their 2001 security treaty on border control and combating terrorism.

The major Sunni and Shiite powers, which have severed ties since 2016, are engaged in proxy wars that could be affected by Friday’s deal.

“Good news” for the Middle East

“The agreement to normalize relations is good news for the Middle East, as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have led to instability in the region,” said Trita Parsi, an expert at the American think tank Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

While the normalization announcement looks like a victory for Iran, the deal should stand the test of time, Keynes adds. Because both sides will have to face “a lot of problems” and overcome their deep differences.

At the moment, no expert can tell how far this approach will go.

After decades of sometimes fierce competition – as in Yemen – for leadership in the Middle East and the Islamic world, the decision of the two countries to reopen embassies is only the first step, which, moreover, must be implemented.

Nuclear ambition

First of all, this normalization announcement did not end Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“The nuclear deal is dead” and “negotiations will not resume,” Bossard said.

Riyadh is moving closer to Tehran “realizing that Iran’s path to a nuclear program is now inevitable,” he continues.

But it doesn’t change the context: “at the moment we are more in the logic of military choice” than appeasement, he says.

Maritime security

friction between Iran and the West also affects the territorial waters of the Persian Gulf, through which most of the world’s oil passes.

There have been numerous attacks on tankers in 2019, after the US under Donald Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and Washington re-imposed sanctions on Tehran. In an effort to de-escalate, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia began to engage directly with Iran.

The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, has confiscated arms shipments believed to have come from Iran. Iran and Israel have also exchanged accusations of attacks on each other’s ships in recent years.

Potential impact of normalization on rival countries Riyadh and Tehran

Riyadh intervened militarily in Yemen as head of a Western-backed military coalition against the Houthis in 2015 after an Iranian-linked Shia rebel group ousted the internationally recognized government from power in the capital, Sana’a.

The war has been in a military stalemate for many years. The Houthis, the de facto power in northern Yemen, control areas on the country’s border with Saudi Arabia, inflicted repeated missile and unmanned strikes on the Sundanese kingdom.

Riyadh and the Houthis resumed direct talks last year brokered by Oman following a UN-brokered ceasefire. The truce expired in October, but was largely respected.

Restoring relations between Riyadh and Tehran could facilitate a deal between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

Iran has been providing military, economic and diplomatic support to President Bashar al-Assad since the start of the civil war in 2011, which isolated the Damascus regime.

China covered Syria at the United Nations and maintained economic and political ties with Damascus.

At the beginning of the war, Riyadh supported the rebels who tried to overthrow Assad and weaken Tehran. But as Iranian support helped Assad turn the tide of the war in his favor, Riyadh’s support for the armed and civilian opposition waned.

Since Saddam Hussein was ousted in a US-led invasion in 2003, Iran has increased its political, economic and political influence in Iraq, causing alarm in Saudi Arabia.