According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia may try to launch a new counteroffensive at Ugledar, but it is unlikely to make much progress due to problems with military personnel and ammunition supplies.

Russia suffered catastrophic losses when its armored vehicles were ambushed by Ukrainian killer drones in VugledarPhoto: Not provided / WillWest News / Profimedia

“There is no question of an offensive, as the enemy has suffered significant losses,” military spokesman Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi said on national television.

“Last week, the top forces aggressively attacked positions near Vugledar, Maryinka and Avdiivka. However, it is now obvious that the morale and psychological state of the Russian military has deteriorated sharply,” says Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, quoted by the Kyiv Independent.

The ISW report indicated that on March 8, a video was circulated on social media purportedly showing soldiers of the Russian Army’s 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade requesting additional artillery before deploying on combat missions near Vugledar.

The 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is to replace the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Marine Brigade after the latter suffered “catastrophic” casualties, ISW said.

According to the institute, the Russian military is directing most of its artillery and resources to Bakhmut, located about 150 kilometers northeast of Vugledar.