Explosions at an airfield in Belarus: what will be the consequences?
Explosions at the Belarusian military airfield in Machulishchi, near Minsk, occurred in the morning of 26 February. The association of former Belarusian security forces BYPOL reported that, as a result of the sabotage, a Russian military aircraft of early warning and control (AWACS) A-50 was seriously damaged.
Information about the explosions at the airport was confirmed by Belaruska Gayun and the Telegram Belarus channel outside the Moscow Ring Road”. Russian military correspondents Yuri Kotenok and Semyon Pegov also wrote that the airfield was likely attacked by drones. Photos and videos from the site, as well as comments from the authorities, were not published.
On Monday, February 27, Lukashenka met with the Secretary of State for the Security Council, the Ministers of Internal Affairs and Defense, the heads of the KGB and the Border Committee, but no statement was made about the incident. . Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov also did not speak to the media about the incident.
DW gathered everything known about the alleged sabotage and asked experts to comment on what happened.
Again “Belarusian partisans”?
In the spring of 2022, after the start of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, Belarusian activists carried out several acts of sabotage on the Belarusian railway, which led to interruptions in the movement of trains with Russian military equipment. Several so-called “railway partisans” were detained in the country, one of those detained was shot in the leg. Several criminal cases have already been convicted, including on terrorism charges. The detainees received heavy sentences – more than 20 years in prison.
After brutal arrests, acts of sabotage on the Belarusian railway stopped. However, according to the head of BYPOL Alexander Azarov, most of the “railway partisans” were not detained. “And we, of course, did not stop work and continued to plan new actions. We were looking for objects where we could apply the skills of the guerrillas”, he said in a comment to DW.
According to Azarov, now “the security forces relaxed, removed the guards everywhere.” Meanwhile, sabotage was being prepared for almost four months. “It is very difficult, being abroad, to communicate with partisans inside Belarus, to carry out reconnaissance, to deliver what is needed, to organize escape routes, to guarantee security,” he explains.
The target, according to him, was precisely the A-50 AWACS aircraft: “It was not by chance that we chose this object, as it is very important for the Russian army. In fact, it is the flagship of the air fleet. It performs reconnaissance from the territory of Ukraine and directs missile attacks. Behind her, the carriers of “daggers” always take off (hypersonic missiles – Red.) and hit the coordinates he tells you.”
According to BYPOL, there was only one Russian A-50 in Belarus – at Machulishchi. He was attacked by drones. “There were two explosions – in the central part, where the navigation “dish” is located, and in front of the fuselage,” says Alexander Azarov. According to preliminary information from BYPOL, the aircraft is beyond repair: “We are waiting for confirmation of this. Let’s see if it takes off or not”.
How many people in Belarus were involved in sabotage, BYPOL does not say how and whether these people were military. “It was a group of Belarusians who have now safely left the country and are safe,” says Azarov.
The price and value of the aircraft
According to the monitoring group “Belarusian Gayun”, the AWACS A-50U aircraft of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation with registration number RF-50608 arrived in Belarus on January 3, 2023. For 54 days, this plate made 12 sorties. Its previous arrival in Belarusian territory was recorded on February 24, 2022.
According to “Gayun”, the Russian Aerospace Forces have only 9 such aircraft, of which 6 are advanced. The cost of such an aircraft is estimated at 330 million dollars.
“This is a radar reconnaissance, guidance and control aircraft, which can determine ground, air and sea targets, including mobile and stationary, at a depth of up to 500 kilometers – missiles, aircraft, tank columns, missile launchers, it is of course, enemy air defense systems and transfer this information to weapons of destruction,” explains Ukrainian military expert, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network Mykhailo Samus.
According to him, without this information, Russian aviation, missiles, kamikaze drones cannot be used. The expert explains: after the take-off of this plane, “in Ukraine, missile or air strikes can be expected – from the territory of Russia, from the sea, in any direction from the territory of Belarus.”
“There are few such aircraft. According to various sources, there may be about ten of them – more or less. They are actively used in the war against Ukraine,” adds Mykhailo Samus.
“This is similar to the sinking of the Moskva cruiser,” assesses Grigory Nizhnikov, an expert at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, the significance of what happened. “It is clear that the Moskva cruiser was the only one of its kind and Russia has about 10 of these aircraft. Sanctions – and this plane is flying with electronics, that is, all microchips and technologies imported from the West – will be very difficult. “
What will the reaction be?
According to Grigory Nizhnikov, it is very significant that the Belarusian and Russian authorities chose the tactic of silence: “It means that they were completely unprepared for this. That is, what happened was a rather shocking situation for them, there was no strategy, as answer her.”
The expert believes that this is especially significant against the background of warnings that any “operation” could force Belarus to enter the war. “Neither Moscow nor Minsk want to destroy the status quo that exists now. Moscow is satisfied with the way the situation is developing in Belarus. And for Lukashenka, it is important to show that he has the situation under control. In this case, this attack it’s out of place – not even that, so it’s better to just ignore it.”
According to Nizhnikov, the version of sabotage by the Ukrainian side on the territory of Belarus would sound even worse for the Belarusian regime than the version of the plane blown up by partisans. He suggests that, in the latter case, Lukashenka could say to Moscow: “Look, you want us to participate in the war, while we ourselves are under attack.” But the “Ukrainian scenario” would be a big political defeat for him. “He has said, and more than once, that if there is an attack from Ukraine, he will have to respond, and Russia will rise up. And we see that Russia does not want to respond, and he has neither the resources nor the desire to do so. it,” he says. specialist.
Meanwhile, inside the country, according to Grigory Nizhnikov, the reaction will be harsh. “It will be important to show that – as was the case with the “railway partisans” – any action directed against both the state and the Russian army will be severely punished. Espert believes they can deter those who put likes on reports of sabotage on social media, who was in the wrong place at the wrong time – near the airfield during the attack “The reaction must be shown, including Moscow: “We guarantee the safety of your property on our territory.” So there is no precedent when Russia sends its troops to protect even the accesses to its military installations”, believes the expert.
According to Alexander Azarov, the detention of a girl who lives in the Machulishchi region is already known. There is evidence that additional patrols are on duty on Belarusian roads. “There are many armed servicemen on the border with Ukraine. Cars are being intensively checked at border posts. Representatives of special services are trying to identify those involved in this action,” said the head of BYPOL.
Source: DW
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