Belarusian generation of protest: who is against Lukashenka
Representative social studies on who was and remains the basis of protest potential in Belarus have not been carried out in the country – independent surveys have been practically impossible in the country in recent years. But experts note that there are a number of indirect indicators that help to form a more or less complete picture.
Using a mathematical model, the former employee of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus, Sergei Besarab, drew a portrait of a typical Belarusian, which the security forces included in the list of extremists (by participation in protests or by comments on the Web). . Most of those “engaged in extremist activities” are 29- to 39-year-olds.
In the fall of 2020, at the height of the protests, the result of a non-representative survey called “Voz das Ruas”, carried out among participants of demonstrations and rallies, was released. They testified that the protest activity covered all sectors of Belarusian society, but its driver was people under the age of 40, who mainly work in the private sector of the economy.
However, the authorities, apparently, also have their own information about the participants in the protest movement: at the end of 2020, the Ministry of Internal Affairs created the Unrest database, where it entered information not only about each detainee (age, gender, employment), but also about journalists from non-state media and NGO workers – even if they were not seen at the rallies. Only security forces have access to this database.
DW asked experts what else is special about Belarus’ generation of protests and whether its leaders will prove themselves in politics.
They don’t miss the USSR and don’t believe in propaganda
Former head of the Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Belarus, Gennady Korshunov, notes that the peculiarity of the Belarusian protest is that the main role was played by middle-aged citizens, who belong mainly to the middle class and who, in principle, they have already developed a life.
According to him, they are no longer students, but people with higher education who have jobs, and often their own businesses and assets, who have been abroad and seen that life can be different. It is important, adds Korshunov, that this is a generation brought up in the “free 90s”, when democratic institutions were born and with them the first mass protests.
“Another significant factor is the Internet, which the Protestant generation gained when its representatives were teenagers. They are able to quickly find information, including alternatives, and verify it. It is much more difficult to deceive them through propaganda”, emphasizes the sociologist. reverence for the Soviet past, they know about life under the Soviet Union from their parents, and often these are not the most positive memories, especially when it comes to the end of the USSR. So they adopted the “keep your head down otherwise you’ll get hit in the head” or “Say thank you for what you already have” narrative.
Part of Belarusian society “wakes up” right now
Political scientist Lesya Rudnik, in turn, points out some polar trends that have developed in Belarusian society after 2020.
“On the one hand, we see disappointment among those who left Belarus, fearing reprisals. The beginning of change is dragging on, and many are guided by rational guidelines – we need to build a future abroad,” clarifies the political scientist. ” A small part of the diaspora is still included in political processes. Today these people are working on educational, cultural projects, it is still important for them to maintain ties with their country”.
According to Rudnik, one should not forget that a part of Belarusian society “woke up” only now, when serious economic problems began in the country – these people are leaving Belarus in search of a better life. “Initially, they weren’t interested in politics, but when their wallets became empty because of the sanctions, they were forced to realize that something was wrong in the country”, continues the interlocutor. As a result, there is an increase in the migration of labor from the Republic of Belarus to EU countries, including for labor specialties (builders, drivers).
Will Belarusians who believe in change go into politics?
In Belarus itself, according to the political scientist, depoliticization is taking place: “Participants in the protests are forced to remain silent or go underground, as the risk of political persecution is high. But the degree of disappointment with the authorities does not it is decreasing .”
As Rudnik said, Belarusian society has outgrown the government, while the regime is stuck in the last century in its rhetoric and personalities: “We really observe a conflict of up to two generations. Defend Lukashenka, but so far they haven’t. was able to convince the public.”
The fact that many new people have joined the protests in 2020 has enabled a significant rejuvenation of the opposition, Lesya Rudnik says: “Today we see new faces in the same Coordinating Council. There is also potential for political activity among representatives of the voluntary movement, the media people. When the window opens opportunities, these people will become politicians and influence changes in Belarus.”
Source: DW
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