February 24 marks the one year anniversary of the founding Russian invasion of Ukraine… And if last year at this time everyone was worried about whether Russian troops could enter Kiev or how long the war would last, this year the question that dominates international analysis concerns China and own attitude towards Ukrainian.

After twelve months of war Beijing has not yet provided military support to Russian forces fighting in UkraineAlthough Moscow I would like this kind of support.

In other words, the same “unlimited” association that they announced in an almost festive atmosphere, thereby sending a resounding signal to the West, Mr. Xi Jinping And Vladimir Putin before the start of the war last year in February, against the backdrop of Beijing and their Winter Olympic Gamesin practice, as a result, there were “limits” that did not allow China’s military participation in the Ukrainian one.

His second year war in Ukraine however, it begins under very different circumstances, when the “irreconcilable” sides of the warring Russians and Ukrainians present themselves as “uncompromising” behind – essentially immobile months – new front lines, while China, on the other hand, claims a clearly more active role in the events, associated with Ukraine.

What they said and did Biden and Putin next week show us that the war continues, the US is on the side of Ukraine, and Russia is withdrawing from the new START treaty to limit nuclear arsenals.

Thus, the war continues and may intensify in the coming months, with Russian bomb “detonators” on the one hand and Western-made tanks (Leopard 2, Challenger 2, etc.) on the other.

It is clear to the West that it will continue to support Ukraine just as strongly, certainly until the summer of 2023 and the next NATO summit, or even until 2024 (the year of the US presidential election). Moscow is clearly not going to retreat at any cost.

In such a “dipole” of seeming “deadlocks”, the only major force that could try to influence the direction of events in Ukraine China from Xi Jinping.

Putin himself acknowledged last September that Samarkand from Uzbekistan and its Summit Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the sidelines of which a meeting with Xi Jinping took place – the first since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, which the Ukrainian conflict caused by Beijing.concerns and questions“. Xi, for his part, seemed a bit distant at this meeting with Putin. At the time, the PRC chairman did not even mention the issue of Ukraine, although Putin publicly mentioned the issue of Taiwan, which supports the position of Beijing.

Initiatives

A few months later, as the war enters its second year, China takes the lead.

Just last week:

• senior Chinese diplomat, Wang Yiwas in Moscow, where he had meetings with Mr. Putin, Lavrov And Patrushev. This visit was the first high-ranking Chinese official to Russia since the start of the war.
• The Chinese Foreign Ministry has unveiled its own 12-point peace plan for a ceasefire in Ukraine called “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis“.
• Western officials (Blinken, Sunak, Stoltenberg) have warned that China is preparing to provide military support to Moscow by sending weapons to Russian troops.
• China’s finance minister was different from most other Chinese finance ministers. G20with his refusal to sign a text, in parts of which condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• The Delegation of China chose to abstain in the vote on UN condemn the Russian invasion. A total of 141 countries supported the relevant resolution calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, while 7 voted against and 32, including China, chose to abstain.

#UNGA The 11th ESS (renewed) has just adopted Draft Resolution A/ES-11/L.7 on the principles of the Constitution #UN underpins a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in #Ukraine (to be recorded in the voting record: 141 votes to 7 abstentions 32)
– FULL TEXT 🔗 https://t.co/cY7MpDcTt5 @UN_PGA pic.twitter.com/wCtq8719t5

— UN Media Relations Representative (@UNMediaLiaison) February 23, 2023

Beijing may still not have sent weapons to Russia after twelve months of war, but it has not condemned the Russian invasion and war and certainly has not accepted the slightest hint of sanctions against Moscow. In fact, over the past twelve months, Mr. Xi Jinping he had no connection with the Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky. In other words, China, as few Western leaders have been quick to point out over the past 24 hours, is far from being considered “neutral” in the Ukrainian situation.

However, Beijing is trying, claiming the role of a “peacemaker” in Ukraine, to strengthen the Chinese diplomatic profile in the international arena. After all, there are many countries of the so-called “global South”, as well as the West, who would like to end this war as soon as possible, even if Ukraine has to lose part of its territories. Indicative in this regard are the data of the survey of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), published last Wednesday exclusively for Greece by the K edition.

Claiming to be a “peacemaker” in the Ukrainian conflict, Xi Jinping’s China is different from the United States. Joe Biden who send weapons to Ukraine. In this way, he “talks” to dozens of countries that did not support resolutions condemning the Russian invasion of the UN, to hundreds of UN member countries that did not impose sanctions against Russia, as well as to those in the West who would like this war to end quickly by one or more compromises.

According to FT, China is trying to win back friends on the international stage after China’s pandemic lockdown. According to the Washington Post, Beijing now wants to drive a wedge into transatlantic relations through Ukraine and for this reason is in a hurry to remind the Europeans of their “strategic autonomy”, while at the same time blaming American “hegemony”, and not Russia in Ukraine, for what is happening..

It all unfolds, doesn’t it, in the shadow of one Chinese American competition Where sharpens (For Taiwannetworks 5G, microchip, tik tak etc.) re-formation of alliances and spheres of influence in the international arena.

Beijing’s plan for a ceasefire in Ukraine, as it stands and as it is formulated – as a list of 12 general principles – does not seem to stand a chance of success.

Will Beijing put pressure on Moscow?

However, everyone agrees that China is perhaps the only country that can influence Russia today and, in this light, her attitude – whether she does something radically different from what she has done so far or not – will significantly influence any events in the future.

President of France Emmanuel Macron hastened to announce in such a framework that he was going to visit Beijing in April, and Vladimir Zelensky he acknowledged that China’s interest in war was not necessarily a negative.

“Interest” in the continuation of the war

However, Stephen Collinson, in his analysis for the American network CNN, argues that China can – in fact and apart from claims to the contrary – do not rush to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. An extension of this war could result in US military interests being “disoriented” and “split” between Asia and Europe, which would be interpreted as positive for China’s aspirations in the Indo-Pacific. In addition, if the war in Ukraine drags on and ends in a stalemate, it could start to create (already visible, but currently controlled) divisions between the West and NATO, which Beijing could try to exploit…