OUR deadly earthquakes in Turkeyin addition to the unspeakable humanitarian tragedy they caused, they highlighted in the most decisive and dramatic way the structural problem of the country: whether and to what extent the buildings and urban fabric in many areas were adequate for security conditions and fundamental anti-seismic protection. rules.

A few days after the “strike” on Enceladus, the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced its intention to quickly restore areas affected by devastating earthquakes. However, according to an analysis published Reuters which calls on architects and engineers, the danger of a future new catastrophe will be visible if Erdogan does not take seriously the need for sound urban planning and take care of the safe construction of new buildings.

It is reminded that Erdogan promised that the reconstruction of the areas affected by the earthquake will be completed within a yearaccording to the most conservative estimates, the cost of the mentioned project is not less than 25 billion dollars, while many believe that in reality the cost will be much higher.

Authorities say more than 380,000 apartments in 105,794 buildings are either in urgent need of demolition or have already collapsed due to Englad. The total number of buildings in the district is 2.5 million.

It is noted that Erdogan’s political dominance in the previous two decades was strongly associated with construction “explosion” in Turkeyduring which the government collected – according to Reuters estimates – approx. $38 billion in taxes that were earmarked for seismic protection. The tax remains in force to this day, and the collected amounts, according to experts, could provide immediate and rapid funding for the restoration of areas.

And as elections approach, Erdogan’s government is coming under fire both for the slow response of the state apparatus after the devastating earthquake, and for criticism from a large section of Turkish society that claims the government’s policies over the years have led to “so easy” destruction. thousand buildings.

Erdogan, for his part, in addition to promising to restore areas within a year, announced that the government will cover the rent of those citizens who left the earthquake-hit cities.

“The first priority is planning, not building new buildings”

At the same time, however, experts believe that the Erdogan government should comply with seismic safety standards and build safer buildings in the area crossed by one of the three faults that cross Turkey.

Essin Koymen, the former head of the Istanbul Chamber of Architects, notes that “not only the replacement of damaged buildings is needed, but also the redesign of cities that will be based on scientific evidence and learn from the mistakes of the past.” “The first priority is planning, not buildingHe says.

The devastating earthquakes on February 6, which also hit neighboring Syria, left more than a million homeless and killed more than 46,000 people in both countries.

However, the earthquakes demonstrated in the most tragic way how “fragile” and “vulnerable” the Turkish infrastructure was, given that both modern and old buildings, including hospitals, mosques, churches and schools, were completely destroyed.

Given the scarcity of infrastructure from previous decades and the overly ambitious reconstruction plan Erdogan announced, many fear there will be no time to right the wrongs of the past.

“When they say that reconstruction begins within a month and is completed in a year, without urban development, this, frankly, means that the scale of the destruction that we are experiencing has never been realized.notes Noushret Suna, deputy head of the Chamber of Civil Engineers, who concludes that “months of urban planning are needed” and that “it is a grave mistake for the government to neglect this planning.”

Infrastructure Minister Murrar Kurum said last week that the government would take scientific research into account when implementing reconstruction plans and that projects would be tendered.

The total cost of rebuilding homes, transportation networks, and infrastructure is estimated by JP Morgan at $25 billion, about 2.5% of GDP, while another report by Turkonfed puts damage to homes at $70.8 billion. Analysts do not rule out that the cost will eventually exceed these first estimates.

Real estate boom, “friendly” construction companies and Erdogan’s big challenge

Being at the “helm” of Turkey for more than twenty years, Erdogan tried to use large real estate projects as a “model” for the country’s great development. The construction of public and private buildings has indeed contributed to the creation of new jobs and affordable housing for the Turkish population, and Erdogan’s policies on the construction front have given him a positive performance and popularity in the opinion polls.

But the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, which could be delayed by earthquakes, present Erdogan with the biggest political challenge of his career.

Many critics of the Erdogan government believe that his government bears a large share of the responsibility for the devastation following the deadly earthquake, arguing that the government decided to give “friendly” companies lucrative construction contracts in exchange for political and financial support.

Pinar Giritlioglu, head of the Istanbul Chamber of Urban Planning, characteristically says: “Unfortunately, everything is still determined by speculation, not science.”

So far, however, the government has promised a thorough investigation into anyone who may be responsible for the collapse of buildings after the earthquake, and authorities have already made dozens of arrests.

In its analysis, Reuters also cites an interesting statement from a former infrastructure minister who argued in mid-2018 that “probably more than half of all buildings were built in violation of housing regulations.“. So far, the Ministry of Urban Development still does not give answers regarding current figures.

At the same time, the Turkish opposition accuses the Erdogan government of failing to comply with building codes, as well as of wasting and mismanaging special taxes that were introduced after the great 1999 earthquake. space to make buildings more resistant to a future earthquake.

Erdogan dismisses the opposition’s criticism as a lie that aims to block much-needed investment in Turkey.

In 2018, the government announced an “amnesty” for buildings that violate building codes in exchange for a fine, a practice followed by previous governments until 1999.

And this despite the fact that the State Housing Organization has built only 1 million earthquake-resistant buildings in the previous two decades – that is, 5% of the buildings in Turkey. While the private sector has refurbished over 2 million durable homes in the same period, according to the Ministry of Urban Development.

On Monday afternoon, two new earthquakes of magnitude 6.4 and 5.8 hit already affected areas of the country, triggering new natural disasters.

Source: Reuters.