In his upcoming message to the Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin will focus on a “special military operation,” as Moscow calls the war in Ukraine, Russian presidential spokesman Dmytro Peskov said in an interview with the Rossiya 1 TV channel. station, writes TASS. The Kremlin admits that the invasion affects Europe to one degree or another.

“Our whole life now revolves around the topic of special operations. And the military special operation in one way or another affects all our lives, affects life on the continent. Therefore, of course, we should expect that the president will pay a lot of attention to this,” said the Kremlin spokesman, answering the question of journalist Pavlo Zarubin.

The press secretary of the president, Dmytro Peskov, also clarified that Putin’s speech before the parliament is “always important news”, it is “always one of the most important events for the head of state during the year.”

“Of course, at such a responsible and very difficult stage of our development, of our life, everyone is waiting for a message in the hope of hearing an assessment of what is happening, an assessment of the special operation, an assessment of the international situation and the president’s vision of how we are coping and how we will move forward. I think this is the main thing that everyone is waiting for, and the main thing that the president will focus on one way or another,” Peskov summarized.

The President of Russia will address the Federal Assembly with a message on February 21, three days before the anniversary of the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.

Military rebranding

During the speech, Vladimir Putin may have suggested changing the status of the military campaign in Ukraine, sources close to the Kremlin said, The Moscow Times reports.

Instead of a “special military operation” with an unclear legal status, Putin could declare it an “anti-terrorist operation,” as described in Russian law, according to sources working in the presidential administration cited by The Moscow Times.

“The message itself is in the special operation mode. First, it was hidden for a long time that the performance would be at the beginning of the year. Secondly, there were public meetings with party leaders – this usually does not happen before a speech. Thirdly, a party rally-concert with the president is planned for February 22. Of course, the main thing here is not the concert, but the rally,” a source who attends meetings in the internal affairs department of the presidential administration told the independent publication on condition of anonymity.

However, no one knows what the final decision will be except for the president and his inner circle, the source said.

Many in the Russian elite will be optimistic about the transition to an “anti-terrorist operation”, which may be followed by a de-escalation of the conflict, according to the second source.

The “ATO” regime is regulated by the Law “On Combating Terrorism” and is introduced in areas where terrorist attacks or clashes may occur.

The mode ends when the threat is gone. It imposes a number of restrictions on residents and broader rights for law enforcement officers, such as the ability to freely enter any premises, check documents and use civilian transport.

ATO, a decade in Chechnya

The “anti-terrorist operation” was introduced in Chechnya in 1999 and was canceled only a decade later.

In January, a group of Duma deputies already suggested abandoning the term “special military operation” proposed by Putin at the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

Deputies from the pro-Putin party “United Russia” Mykhailo Sheremet and Yuriy Shevtkin advocated the declaration of a full-scale war, and deputy from the party “Just Russia – For the Truth” Dmytro Gusev – for the “ATO” regime.

How to complete the “special forces operation”.

Political consultant Abbas Gallyamov said that Putin will decide the format of the war in Ukraine depending on the situation on the front line. He wrote speeches for Putin between 2008 and 2010, when he was prime minister, and left Russia after the start of the war because the Russian authorities recognized him as a “foreign agent”.

“If there are resources, he will continue in the hope of obtaining more convincing results; if not, he will show victory with what he has. Now absolutely nothing can be ruled out – the president is showing complete inadequacy, but it is not clear whether he is really inadequacy or just pretending in the hope of convincing Ukrainians to give him at least the territories he controls. – says Gallyamov.

Political scientist Kostyantyn Kalachov believes that now the main task of the Kremlin is to present Ukraine as an aggressor country. And this means that the Russian authorities will try to form the opinion that Russia is conducting defensive actions.

“The military special operation can be completed only by withdrawing to the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. After that, in order not to look like an aggressor, you can talk about the defense of Russian borders. Instead of a “special military operation”, a defensive operation can be proposed. But this is purely hypothetical,” said Kalachov.

Regime change presented as victory

The transition to the “ATO” can be presented as a victory, political scientist Ilya Graschenkov notes, since the goals of the “special military operation” were not clearly formulated and repeatedly changed, and it can be stated, for example, that the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of the Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia was achieved last year.

On February 21 at 12:00, TV channels will show Putin’s speech before the Federal Assembly.

On February 22, the Russian authorities are planning a rally-concert at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.

The last such event called “For a world without Nazism” with the participation of Putin was held on March 18, 2022, timed to the 8th anniversary of the annexation of Crimea.

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