Over the past year, in the context of the war that Russia started in Ukraine, news about the Republic of Moldova has become more frequent. Not necessarily having any affinity with this space, I prefer to look west, perhaps further south (south of the Danube), but I follow with interest and curiosity what is happening beyond the Prut. My interest and curiosity are historical in nature. It’s true, sometime around 1990-1991 I also went through a unionist, romantic phase, but then I grew up and started seeing and evaluating things differently. More… realistic.

Unfortunately, I have not yet had the opportunity to visit the Republic of Moldova (but I hope to do so as soon as possible), but I know its history very well, I read news and analysis that appear in the media and talk to people who have been there, and especially to the people who were there. I ask questions about history and its interpretations, about society, about the inhabitants and their cultural, linguistic and political choices.

What made me write this text? My own questions and dilemmas, which I have had for a long time, but which have taken on a new meaning after the events that began to take place from the end of 2021 (when the question of a Russian attack on Ukraine really arose). We all remember that then they began to say very seriously that “Moldova will come after Ukraine.” Since then, the name of the Republic of Moldova returns almost every day in the Romanian and international press in connection with the war in Ukraine, and in the last few days even more often than before.

A bit of history

No one can deny the fact that for many centuries the current territory of the Republic of Moldova was part of the Romanian cultural context. Maybe, with the exception of the territories beyond the Dniester – but there is also a discussion there. This territory was part of Moldova, being its eastern half. In this context, the area in question has had a rich and diverse history as well as political, ethnic, linguistic and cultural implications.

In 1813 Bessarabia it was occupied by the Russian Empire and remained part of it until the beginning of 1918, when, as a result of the collapse of the empire and the outbreak of the First World War, Bessarabia was legally united with Romania and remained part of it until the summer of 1940, according to the Soviet ultimatum of June 28, 1940. Bessarabia, together with Northern Bukovyna went to the Soviet Union. A year later, as a result of the famous order of Marshal Ion Antonescu, Romanians, I command you, cross the Prut!the Romanian army – participates in the “Barbarossa” plan together with Nazi Germany and its allies, crosses the Prut and liberates the territories occupied by the Soviet authorities.

After the great battle of Stalingrad, the Red Army takes the initiative and counterattacks. Romania again lost these territories, which returned to the USSR. The Paris Peace Treaty of 1947 establishes the reality on the ground. Bessarabia mostly becomes the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic, and Northern Bukovina becomes part of the Ukrainian SSR. In 1945-1991, the process of Russification, which began in the 19th century, was resumed and accelerated, along with the process of Communization and Sovietization.

In the context of the collapse of the USSR and the surprisingly turbulent process of the awakening of the Romanian national identity, on August 27, 1991, the Republic of Moldova declared its independence, and a day later it was recognized by Romania. At the time, there were voices that noted the haste with which Iliescu’s Romania recognized Moldova’s independence, and pointed out that this haste was not dictated by Romanian national feelings, but was a gesture aimed at practically closing off any future vozz’ unity Since 1991, the Republic of Moldova has been an independent state, the eastern neighbor of Romania. A neighbor with whom Romania has very good relations. Unfortunately, the transition of Pax Soviet to the democratic and prosperous world of Europe is very long and painful for the Republic of Moldova, but the path it is currently on is inspiring.

Why was this historical excursion necessary?

It was necessary to understand what the Republic of Moldova is today.

A few numbers: today’s territory of Moldova was part of the country of Moldova for five centuries, that is, as we have shown above, part of the Romanian cultural context. Then the century was the viceroyalty of the Russian Empire. Then it was part of Romania for 22 years. The war years should not even be considered “normal time”. Next was almost half a century, during which Bessarabia was a Soviet Socialist Republic. During this time, its population experienced certain dynamics. It was also diverse in the Middle Ages and the pre-modern era, but in the tsarist century there was a strong Russification, carried out by administrative means and through the colonization of the Russian-speaking population and the population of other origins (more… unexpectedly German, even French, etc.), the latter economically motivated. These colonizations had important demographic, cultural and linguistic consequences. Lucian Boya rightly pointed out in a widely disputed book on the First World War that for the Crown Council, which had to decide on whose side Romania would enter the war in 1914, Bessarabia would have been a more urgent national priority than Transylvania, but in the end the entry into the war was determined by the fact that Russia was in alliance with England and France.

In 1918-1940, the Romanian element consolidated along the Prut, but after 1945 it suffered severe blows from the Soviet administration, which practiced new administrative measures of Russification and particularly brutal deportations of the local population and encouraged the settlement of foreign elements, especially ethnic Russians. An interesting example from this point of view is the Transnistrian enclave.

By the above I mean that for centuries, today’s territory of the Republic of Moldova is not a “frozen”, monolithic territory, ideal from the point of view of the Romanian element, but one that has become more diverse, more demographically and culturally colorful. One in which the Russian element is strong ethnically, linguistically, culturally, and politically. In general, society in the Republic of Moldova, as I understand it, is polarized and complex. There are people who support Romanian identity, others speak Romanian (we say so) but claim to speak Moldovan. There are many ethnic Russians who have lived there for 50, maybe 150 years and feel attached to their homeland (?) (nothing abnormal about that). There are families where one man feels Romanian and watches TVR or TV Moldova, the other is also Romanian, but watches Russian TV channels and does not want to hear about Romania, the European Union and NATO. There are, of course, many mixed families, Romanian-Russian / Moldovan-Russian / Romanian-Ukrainian, etc. And so on. From this point of view, everything is very difficult and at the same time interesting.

The idea that periodically returns in the Romanian space is the idea of ​​the union of the Republic of Moldova with Romania.

Ideally, it would have been possible – perhaps – until 1991-1992 (see above), but then it was not desirable at the political level in any of the countries and, above all, it was impossible for geostrategic reasons (countermeasures from Russia). In addition, there is the thorny and intractable problem of Transnistria. In the following years, Romania embarked on the path of Euro-Atlantic integration, became a member of NATO and the European Union, and within these frameworks the union is impossible.

You need to ask a few questions coldly

Who wants a union? Anyone want a merger? What would be its advantages and especially disadvantages? It’s an exercise in imagination, politics and economics that we all do well, but especially enthusiasts. I repeat, the Republic of Moldova is not a “Romanian territory”, which by mistake is now not part of Romania, but an independent state with a very complex ethnic, cultural and linguistic profile. Today you can’t come and wave idealistic slogans, as if the Republic of Moldova is a huge red carpet, which can’t wait to unite with Romania. Unfortunately, not everything is so simple and it won’t be for a long time.

First, the (idealistic) idea of ​​unification is only one of the few political options that the Republic of Moldova has. As we have shown above, many Romanian speakers also do not support the union. (True, unionists, moderates, and even Russian-speakers rushed to obtain Romanian citizenship and EU passports). You cannot build – even theoretically – a scenario of unification with a group of Moldovan unionists who do not have a convincing majority (opinion polls say 35-55% support over time). The latest (I think) public opinion poll on the matter, published in December 2022, says 35% of Moldovans would vote “yes” and 47% “against”.

In Romania, support for the union would amount to 74%. In fact, there are so many “what ifs” that we don’t even get to the economic, political or cultural arguments. Read the whole article and comment on Contribuotrs.ro