Senior U.S. officials are increasingly convinced that a Chinese spy balloon shot down off the coast of South Carolina in early February was originally monitoring U.S. military bases in Guam and Hawaii, but was blown off course by winds into Alaska, in Canada and eventually the continental United States.

The evolution of Washington’s theory about the original goals of the Chinese military and new details suggesting a misunderstanding of the U.S. response by Chinese officials in private meetings reflect how difficult it is for Washington and Beijing to understand each other’s intentions — a vacuum that U.S. officials’ fear could create. more distrust, already strained relations or even armed conflict.

In yet another example of the foggy landscape created by superpower competition and political imperatives, US officials said Wednesday that they now increasingly believe the three unidentified flying objects shot down over North America are unlikely to be surveillance devices.

US officials said they are still trying to reach a definitive conclusion on what the objects were and do not think they will do so until more debris is collected. Some senior officials said that based on preliminary work, they believe that the three objects were likely intended for scientific or meteorological research and have ceased to exist, looking like flying debris.

However, the fallout from the spy ball itself continues to escalate tensions between the United States and China, even as the new revelations associated with the episode show deep confusion around the issue. U.S. officials discussed the revelations on condition of anonymity due to sensitive information that also has diplomatic implications.

Chinese officials did nothing to the balloon as it flew over the continental United States, including over a missile silo in Montana, for days after senior US diplomats discussed the matter privately with Chinese officials for the first time. .

It took nearly three days after the balloon crisis erupted, Chinese officials publicly told their American counterparts that the balloon’s controllers were trying to expedite its withdrawal from US airspace, in an apparent attempt to defuse tensions that have baffled Biden administration officials and showed that Beijing misunderstood the United States.

At this point, the balloon reached the coastline, the American public and politicians were outraged by this for days – some criticized President Biden for not shooting it down right away – and US officials intended to scrutinize it to study its sensors, even if in the end they looked only at the wreckage of a downed rocket.

An F-22 fighter shot down the balloon with a single missile a few hours later on the afternoon of 4 February.

Meanwhile, additional dark activities have puzzled US analysts trying to understand China’s intentions. On Jan. 28, as the balloon approached the Aleutian Islands and US airspace over Alaska in its off-route orbit, the balloon’s self-destruct function failed, US officials said. The Chinese operators may not have wanted to destroy the balloon. It is also possible that they unsuccessfully tried to activate the self-destruct mechanism.

The operators may have misjudged the wind and believed the currents would quickly carry the balloon over Alaska and out of US airspace into the Arctic Ocean. Or they could let the balloon continue to see what information it can gather without foreseeing the diplomatic and political maelstrom that will follow as the balloon drifts downwind over the continental United States.

Some U.S. officials say they know the alleged trajectory of the spy balloon in part because the U.S. government has been tracking the balloon since its launch in late January from Hainan Island in southern China – details first published Monday in The New York Times. — and she never let it out of her sight as she moved across the Pacific. U.S. agencies also tracked the balloon as it drifted and was blown away by the wind, officials said.

Once the balloon veered off course, as US officials suspect, the Chinese balloon operators, who may have been employees of a civilian balloon manufacturer under contract with China’s People’s Liberation Army, appear to have made a number of bad decisions.

Chinese operatives and officials took no immediate action after two senior US diplomats, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, made an official presentation to senior Chinese diplomat Zhu Haichan at the State Department around 6:30 p.m. February 1st about the hot air balloon, telling him that his government should do something about it. According to US officials, Zhou looked stunned.

More than 24 hours and half a day after the Pentagon announced the balloon’s existence, Chinese foreign ministry officials in Beijing spoke privately to diplomats at the US embassy to inform them that the balloon was a harmless political device that went awry. from the course.

Later that Friday, Feb. 3, after China issued a public statement of regret and Blinken canceled a planned weekend visit to Beijing, the balloon began to accelerate, US officials said.

The US government still has a lot to figure out. Although the balloon was equipped with small propellers, US intelligence agencies do not believe it could have changed speed or direction abruptly, some US officials said.

Then, early Saturday morning, Chinese officials told their American counterparts that the balloon’s operators were trying to get it out of US airspace.

Already by this time, the balloon had reached the coast of the Atlantic Ocean, and Pentagon officials began planning to bring it down over the ocean.

While Chinese balloons have flown over the continental United States in the past, Washington’s balloon program appears to be focused on US military bases in the Pacific. Previous balloon reconnaissance flights were relatively short. When, for example, two spy balloons flew over Hawaii, one quickly flew over the island, and the other entered the airspace around the island’s periphery but did not fly over it.

The Biden administration said China’s military spy balloon program sent airships to more than 40 countries on five continents, violating their sovereignty. U.S. officials began learning about the program after 2020 during a broader survey of unidentified airborne phenomena. Officials then realized that some previous sightings of aerial objects in US airspace were Chinese reconnaissance balloons.

Beijing may be developing a program to add to its satellite reconnaissance collection and also have backup satellites in case of war with the United States, US officials said.

“They have 260 reconnaissance satellites in orbit,” said John Culver, a former U.S. intelligence China analyst. “This is a great cosmic force.”

Culver added that there is a strong political motivation in the Chinese system for such a program.

“The Chinese government knows that the US sends hundreds, perhaps more than a thousand reconnaissance aircraft off its coast every year,” he said. “They are frustrated that they cannot resist. This program gives them something that they can donate for domestic consumption. This is a program that has political and wartime value for them.”

The balloon program is still at an experimental stage, so getting critical information, if any, that balloons can collect from US bases is important to the Chinese military, US officials say. The spy balloon had equipment, including antennas, that allowed it to collect electronic messages and transmit encrypted signals to Chinese satellites. But US officials insist the balloon did not collect information and other data that Chinese satellites can no longer collect.

Initial evidence indicates the balloon’s self-destruct mechanism was intact, US officials say. Navy divers searching for the wreckage off the coast of South Carolina found a blasting cap designed to destroy the payload, the FBI said. Researchers studying the recovered wreckage could potentially determine if a malfunction prevented the device from reaching its target, though several US officials say they now assume the device was operational.

US officials say the Chinese likely wanted to avoid activating the device while the balloon was above the ground, fearing that any injury or damage it could cause would quickly escalate the crisis. The Chinese authorities probably also had the ability to deflate the balloon and lower it to the ground, but they wanted to try and stop the Americans from getting surveillance equipment.

Navy divers have assembled some parts of the balloon’s sensors. It was equipped with a camera and antenna array, and the more US officials learn about these devices, the less impressed they are with the balloon’s capabilities, they say. In each case, they add, the Pentagon blocked communications and operations at military bases in the balloon’s orbit as it drifted over the United States.

But the balloon continues to disrupt relations between the two great powers and the world’s largest economies, which are already at one of their lowest levels in decades.

Critical communication channels are suspended. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe refused to answer phone calls from his US counterpart Lloyd Austin immediately after the February 4 downing of the plane, the Pentagon said. Blinken did not reschedule a visit to Beijing, which he canceled during a confrontation with balloons. Both the White House and the Chinese Foreign Ministry have publicly criticized their spyware this week.

Perhaps the biggest long-term impact is the impression it made on ordinary citizens who followed the hot air balloon saga, said Yuen Yuen Ang, a China scholar at Johns Hopkins University.

“When public opinion perceives another country as an enemy, it takes hold,” he said, “and it becomes increasingly difficult for the leaders of America and China to soften their positions and stabilize relations.”