What can his election testify to? Nikos Christodoulides V President of the Republic of Cyprus; Could this give rise to realistic hopes for the reunification of the island? The relatively recent history of the Cyprus question has proven that electoral processes mean nothing. Each new president is elected with a vision to solve the problem. An insurmountable obstacle is Turkey’s insurmountable intransigence and its commitment to the legalization of the partition, as well as the somewhat reasonable insecurity generated by the occupation of the Cypriot north for almost half a century for the citizens of the Republic of Cyprus. In addition, the two communities have effectively drifted apart, while the demographic and social changes in the occupied territories, with settlers who are second and soon third generation settlers, constantly raise suspicion and rejection of a coexistence that guarantees a meaningful and sustainable perspective.

No matter how the discussions progress at the technical and constitutional level, no matter how close we are to a solution, the political and social reflexes forged by the invasion and occupation are strong. There is a real social and political reality: almost no one can imagine, let alone describe, the day after the implementation of the agreement. The elephant in the room is Turkey and its geopolitical obsession to prevent the Cypriot state from functioning in a truly free and independent manner. That is, within the framework of EE, Ankara’s influence has decreased. This is something that is unlikely to be accepted by Turkey, and this is something in which the approaches of all Turkish political forces almost completely converge.

Thus, the issue is of a strategic nature. The new president may have a key advantage. He negotiated at the highest possible level with direct involvement and knowledge of the last failed attempt to find a solution in Crans-Montana in 2017. He knows the aspirations of the other side just as he knows the internal political and social compromises. During the election campaign, he did not formulate maximalist goals and did not create expectations, and this is important. Also, precisely because he is seen as a hardliner on the national question, he may be more willing to admit when a compromise might be politically feasible and strategically viable. In the history of American diplomacy during the Cold War, there is something called the “Nixon in China” syndrome. For many, this is nothing more than a myth. This means that only a Cold Warrior like Richard Nixon could – and rebuilt – relations with Mao’s China after 20 years of isolation and hostility. The new president of the Republic of Cyprus has little in common with the famous Nixon. However, a solution that seems completely impossible at the moment may, during his term of office, have that legitimacy that makes the Cyprus problem appear unresolved.

* Mr. Costas Ifantis is Professor of International Relations and Director of IDIS at Panteion University.