The earthquakes that have killed more than 5,000 people in Turkey have once again revealed a painful truth: earthquakes are impossible to predict, even though some say you can tell what’s happening underground by looking up at the sky. Why is it impossible to know when an earthquake will occur? How much are the statements related to the connection between the earthquakes in Turkey and the Romanian “head-to-head” worth.

The connection between the earthquakes in Turkey and Romania and some contradictions

There is much debate today about the connection between the devastating earthquakes in Turkey and the small earthquakes in Romania. The connection is not clear, but fortunately the earthquakes in Romania were of low intensity. There were a number of contradictions between the statements of the Institute of Earth Physics regarding the connection between the earthquakes in Turkey and the earthquakes that occurred on Monday in Romania.

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“The North Anatolian Fault, which crosses Turkey from east to west, may affect the seismic movement in Vranca, even though Romania and Turkey are on different tectonic plates. A fault moving south (where the recent earthquakes occurred) is less likely to affect seismicity in our country,” INFP said in a Facebook post. You can read more about earthquakes in Turkey in the information provided by INFP.

The earthquakes that occurred in Romania have nothing to do with those that occurred in Turkey, the seismic activity in the Vranca area is normal, said Constantin Ionescu, director general of the National Institute of Earth Physics, for Agerpres.

“The earthquake that was in eastern Turkey, on the eastern fault of Anatolia, is quite far away and occurs on a surface fault. Coincidentally, we and they had an earthquake at the same time, but neither caused the other. That is, the earthquake in Turkey did not start the earthquake in Romania. It didn’t have an impact, even if they were superficial,” Kostiantyn Ionescu explained.

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On the other hand, Mircea Radulian, a researcher at the Institute of Earth Physics, told stirileprotv.ro that the seismic waves, which spread in all directions, also reached Romania.

“There is a fault in the north of Turkey, the North Anatolian fault, which has this direction, and there is another fault which goes to the southeast, where yesterday’s earthquake happened. The North Anatolian fault is closer to Romania, and it can be said that it can have a little more influence. A fault going south is less likely to affect what happens in our country. This earthquake that happened last night caused some seismic waves that spread in all directions, of course they also reached Romania. And being large enough, they could trigger several earthquakes. There was a sensitive area there.”

Three key elements for earthquake detection

One thing is certain: no one could have predicted that these earthquakes would occur in Turkey on Monday, at that time and in those areas.

The prestigious United States Geological Survey (USGS) makes it clear that we CANNOT predict earthquakes, and that no earthquake has yet been accurately detected, except for a special case in China several decades ago. The USGS also says that a forecast must contain three precise elements: the date and time, the magnitude, and the exact location of the earthquake.

In the case of China (caused by an earthquake in 1975), the authorities decided to evacuate a city of a million people, many of whom managed to escape when the earthquake struck. The prediction was based on the strange behavior of the animals and the fact that there were low-intensity tremors. But this was an exception: other strong earthquakes in China were not predicted, and thousands of people died. For example, in Tangshan in 1976, one of the strongest earthquakes in the world killed more than 300,000 people.

The U.S. Geological Survey states that it can at least be estimated that an earthquake can occur in a given area once in a given period of time. The big problem with those who say they can predict earthquakes is that they can’t predict all three factors: exact time, location, and magnitude.

Accurate short-term predictions seem impossible for the foreseeable future. The tendency is to take into account the probability of an earthquake in different places and the authorities to ensure that most of the structures are as safe as possible so that the number of victims is less in the event of a strong earthquake.

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On the other hand, as the November 2022 5.4 magnitude earthquake in Vranca showed, many users of Android phones received alerts from Google seconds before the earthquake. Some were notified during the earthquake, others after it was over.

Your phone can use your approximate location to alert you of nearby earthquakes that have a magnitude of at least 4.5,” Google said. Source: US Geological Survey, which publishes real-time information on all earthquakes that occur in the world.

How lying those who claim to be able to predict earthquakes

For example, INFP specialists have repeatedly stated that an earthquake with a magnitude of more than 7 points can occur “at any moment” in the seismic zone of Vrancha. “Any moment” does not mean a forecast, especially since Romania is a country with a high seismic potential.

So those who say they can predict earthquakes are lying for several reasons: they can’t say exactly when, where, and how big an earthquake will be, they don’t base their predictions on scientific evidence, or they’re too wrong. general predictions like “a major earthquake will occur in zone X by 2030”. The latter is not a prognosis, especially since it cannot save life. In addition, such forecasts are so general that often an earthquake is “collapsed” by the forecast in that area.

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It’s even worse when a system that claims to be able to predict an earthquake makes the wrong prediction and scares thousands of people that an earthquake will happen, but absolutely nothing happens. Such a mistake completely destroys the trust in this system.

A company from Israel, which also had Romanian investors, said in 2019 that it was the first in the world to be able to predict earthquakes eight hours before they occurred, and for this it did not study what was happening in the ground, but in the ionosphere, the upper layer of the atmosphere .

The company argued that in order to predict earthquakes, we should look to the sky, not the ground, or rather, we should analyze the ionosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that is more than 60-70 km high (and reaches 1000 km). ).

Signs you can’t rely on

There are signs that are interpreted as harbingers of a major earthquake, such as excited animals, many aftershocks of low magnitude, or elevated radon concentrations. In most cases, these signs are not accompanied by a destructive earthquake.

Many geologists say that it is almost impossible to predict a large earthquake because there are so many things to analyze, and although the movement of tectonic plates is slow and long, an earthquake is triggered quickly, the rupture happens instantaneously and the shock waves propagate very quickly. Earthquakes start suddenly and can last less than 30 seconds. The longest can last up to three minutes, but these are isolated cases.

How the earthquakes that devastated Turkey and Syria are different, and why there is a risk of more aftershocks within weeks

Many geologists say that earthquakes can occur in active zones at any time, and rather than hoping to predict a major earthquake with precision down to the minute, a better strategy is to calculate the probability of a major earthquake occurring in a given area. “Defense” must be prepared with these data: people must know what to do, buildings must be sustainable, buildings with problems must be repaired or demolished.

If we talk about probability, once a century the territory of present-day Romania was devastated by a strong earthquake. In 1471, almost all houses in Brasov and churches in Tirgovishte were destroyed. In 1802, chroniclers wrote that the “Great Earthquake” lasted two minutes, in 1940 the city of Panciu was almost completely destroyed, and in Bucharest the Carleton quarter collapsed, causing more than 100 deaths.

The strongest earthquakes that affected Romania in the last 180 years were in 1838, 1901, 1940, 1977, 1986 and 1990.

The probability of an earthquake in a given area can be calculated using geological measurements, seismograph data, and information about past strong earthquakes in each area. Probabilities can be calculated from this information and then using statistical models.

Vrancha region and why so many earthquakes occur here

An earthquake with a magnitude of more than 7 can occur at a depth of 60 to 180 km in the Vrancha seismic zone at almost any time. This is not the only area where potentially devastating earthquakes can occur, INFP has repeatedly explained.

Why are there so many earthquakes in the Vrancha region? The meeting point between the East European plate and the Mesian and Intraalpine subplates is located in the Vrancha area. The collision of three tectonic plates caused the detachment of the lithospheric block, which is now submerged in the mantle.

The block originates from an old tectonic plate that is sufficiently cold and rigid compared to the surrounding mantle to allow the generation of earthquakes deep in the mantle, where temperature and plasticity conditions would normally prevent it.

As a result of pressure from several directions, as well as the influence of the main tectonic plates (in this case, Euro-Asian, African and, indirectly, Indo-Australian), ruptures occur within the respective block. , they are the cause of seismic movements of Vrans, especially intermediate ones (between 60 and 180 km).

Sub-intermediate magnitude earthquakes associated with the Vrancha area are associated with a series of fault systems activated by stresses from the movement of subplates converging at Vrancha, IMPF data show

Why does RO Alert not send notifications in the event of an earthquake

The Ro-Alert service was NOT designed to send earthquake alerts because the system CANNOT detect an earthquake before it happens. The system is designed to notify the public about serious problems after an earthquake or other natural disasters.