According to Western officials quoted by CNN, Russia is unlikely to achieve strategic success in any potential offensive against Ukraine this spring due to limited support in terms of balance of forces, equipment and logistics.

joint military exercises of Russia and BelarusPhoto: AFP / AFP / Profimedia

Those restrictions may not prevent Russia from “attempting to launch an offensive,” but “their ability to change the course of the conflict is currently limited,” the officials said.

Moscow is trying to compensate for its losses, the officials added.

“There are serious constraints on their ability to really make up for the losses they’ve suffered in Ukraine, so you see them turning to international partners to try to fill the gap,” they said.

According to them, Russia and Ukraine were actually “racing” for “who can support the supply of weapons.”

Moscow’s current offensive is more about the “deployment and redeployment of existing people and equipment on the ground. You see people taking some offensive actions, but I don’t think you see the beginning of the offensive in grand strategic terms. “It is unlikely that hundreds of thousands of mobilized reservists are formed into integral formations capable of large-scale offensive and maneuver operations,” the officials explained.

Meanwhile, officials expressed doubt that Russia would use its nearby ally, Belarus, to launch an offensive in the coming months.

“Belarus is a useful training ground for Russian troops, where they can send them for training and then bring them back to the front in Ukraine,” the officials said. “We see Russian forces in Belarus. We do not see them being placed on the border, and currently they do not have the logistical and technical capabilities to direct themselves and threaten Kyiv,” they say.

But the presence of Russian troops prompts Ukraine to deploy troops in that direction to “offset that potential risk,” the officials said, although they stressed that it is “highly unlikely” that Belarus “will be the axis of advance in the next few years.” months”.

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