Negotiations between the US and Turkey are taking place in an atmosphere of mutual distrust, and many fronts remain open. For the Americans, NATO expansion is the best way to unite and strengthen the organization that has been discussed so far. And the inclusion of two states with a long tradition of neutrality, especially Sweden, would be a paid response to Russian revisionism and provide strategic depth to the critically important Baltic region.

However, Turkey has a different opinion. From the start, she has maintained her distance and reservations, believing she has a unique opportunity to radically change the two Scandinavian states’ policies towards the Kurdish terrorist elements she opposes, who reside mainly in Sweden. Ankara also demanded the lifting of the arms embargo imposed on it after 2019 and its implementation by Finland. And that’s because Helsinki is on fire to speed up procedures, going so far as to propose to break the deadlock in Sweden.

The same shutdown, but on a different level, is being unsuccessfully attempted by Turkey regarding F-16 deliveries and NATO expansion. So, in order to avoid American pressure, I am informed that the President of the Turkish National Assembly is considering holding two separate votes before the dissolution of parliament to ratify the accession protocol for Finland, but turn on the red light for Sweden.

The incident with the far-right Danish politician who burned the Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, and the effigy of the Turkish president by Kurdish protesters is butter for Erdogan’s bread, who is now trying to get out of a predicament. and to expose Sweden as solely responsible for what he himself decided to use as a bargaining chip from the very beginning. Now he believes that no one can accuse him of playing Putin’s game, blocking NATO expansion, hoping, however, that Washington will not cave in by accepting the integration of the two Scandinavian states in different (temporary) phases, so the swamp will remain. However, Sweden will take the blame, and it is true that apart from Erdoğan’s tactics, the government in Stockholm, while showing more flexibility on rule of law issues than before, subsequently, and under pressure from rising far-right forces, took a tougher stance in response to unarmed requests. Ankara to extradite persons hostile to the regime, and not just criminals and terrorists.

Ideally, Turkey aims to permanently end US support for the Syrian Kurds.

The Turkish leadership, for its part, is taking advantage of the moment to project the face of the defender of the weak and of Muslim origin (in fact, it has been systematically invested in) in order to defend the rights and pride of Muslims. and pretend to admonish the Europeans (he also summoned the Dutch ambassador over a similar Koran incident) by accusing them of discrimination, xenophobia and violation of fundamental rights. Thus, it expands its audience abroad and fully satisfies the domestic audience. The role of the leader, who turns the mirror to the West to expose his hypocrisy, suits Erdogan like a glove and will drain him on the way to elections, and negative reports about his autocratic rule in the Western press are multiplying. After all, he deliberately feeds each other with extremes within Europe, because in practice he wants them to be his interlocutors in order to be able to send their messages internationally.

However, the main thing for Ankara is the effect of its attitude towards Sweden, which seems understandable and justified in consultations with Washington. Ideally, Turkey, with this turn of events, seeks a permanent end to the support that the US is offering to the Syrian Kurds. However, the delivery of the F-16 is a key issue, as is the West’s tolerance for it in the run-up to the elections. Erdogan expects to achieve this if he keeps the sanction for Sweden’s integration into NATO before the elections. However, regardless of which side has the luxury of time to come to terms with its terms, it is becoming even more difficult under the current circumstances for Turkey to add another thorn in its troubled relationship with the US by triggering a crisis with Greece.

* Mr. Konstantinos Filis is Director of the Institute of International Affairs, Professor at the American College of Greece and International Affairs Analyst for ANT1.