In exercises to rally their traditional voters and in the “hunt” for the vacillators, which in many ways will form the final ratios in the first elections simple analogies will continue to dabble Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and SYRIZA President Alexis Tsipras after the explosive standoff they had on Friday in Parliament.

Now that the country is entering the pre-election period, one of the biggest bets on N.D. and Koumoundourou is the approach of the so-called undecided voters who, according to Megaros Maximos qualitative polls as well as quantitative public opinion polls, have certain party origins, characteristics, as well as “requirements” to make their final choice in front of the ballot box.

In particular, in most public opinion polls, the undecided are in the region of 10%. Of these, about half come from the Northwest. and SYRIZA and other smaller parties. Those 5-6% who in the previous elections, in 2019, chose two main gladiators and now move in the so-called “gray zone”, are largely divided, with some variations “in favor” of N.D. or SYRIZA, depending on the political situation. Thus, for Megaro Maximos and Koumunduru, the criteria set by individual voters to shape their final political choice are crucial. What is it;

• Stability. However, as a concept, it covers a wide range of issues, from the economy to public order and national security, with citizens tending to make their final choice based on who they “trust”. In light of the above, in this particular area, Mr. Mitsotakis appears to have a comparative advantage, while SYRIZA appears to be losing ground on specific issues, such as immigration or weapons programs, and his government background. .

• The cost of living. Accuracy, due to the side effects of the war in Ukraine, has become the number one issue for most citizens and, of course, for the mass of swing voters. It is clearly easier for Mr. Tsipras as an opposition to invest in this front. On the contrary, the prime minister is trying to “balance” by proposing support measures that have been adopted so far. At the same time, he has as a “weapon” the image of personal authority with the slogan that after fulfilling the obligation to “tax less” in the period 2019-2023. be “higher wages”.

• Response to toxicity. Most of the undecided hate scandals and extreme polarization. However, Mr. Tsipras is largely compelled to run a particularly high-pitched campaign – as his recent speeches in Parliament have shown – in order to rally his electoral base, as well as voice the voice of those outside SYRIZA who want the current government’s defeat. Mr. Mitsotakis makes it clear that he prefers to focus on a keynote speech and a comparison of the actions of the government of N.D. and SYRIZA. However, at times, the most typical example of which was yesterday’s no-confidence vote, he is forced, in order to express his traditional supporters, to raise the glove of Mr. Tsipras, regardless of the cost on the undecided front.

Voters who have not yet decided on their choice of party are demanding sympathy and self-criticism from the leadership.

Finally, the high selection criteria for voters, including those who have not made a final choice, in connection with the upcoming election campaign are:

• Feeling of “identification” of the leader with the citizen. In doing so, it is essential that Mr. Mitsotakis and Mr. Tsipras understand the magnitude of the problems, even if they are unable to fully address them. It is no coincidence that the Prime Minister’s speeches also have this dimension. This was evidenced by disgust at his speech last Thursday in Crete on the cost of living: “Beware, however, I will say again that I cannot and will not, and I would not be honest with you if I made things beautiful. . However, I will insist that we are actually fighting and trying and responding much more effectively than many other European countries,” the Prime Minister said, emphasizing the meaning of the word “fight”.

• Self-criticism. The acknowledgment of mistakes by the rulers is considered decisive, and Mr. Mitsotakis has as a plus that he did not hesitate to admit failures not only in the case of wiretapping, which dominates the current situation in the news, but also in other matters. , such as the fires of 2021, where he subsequently took strong measures to strengthen civil protection.

Scissors

As mentioned above, in addition to bringing in the waverers, the second big bet for Mr. Mitsotakis and Mr. Tsipras is to increase the mobilization of their parties, which appears to be moving at rates just below 70%. Experts of opinion polls report that for the corresponding period of 2019, N.D. and SYRIZA demonstrated clearly large rallies, in the region of 80% and 70% respectively.

However, they believe that the “photo of the moment” recorded by public opinion polls may change after the official announcement of the election. They also note that voter behavior at this stage may be different compared to 2019, as the first match will be played on a simple proportional system, so perhaps the governance dilemma will be weaker and the rally of the two gladiators lower in the first ballots. .

In any case, current opinion polls show a clear advantage for ND. vs. SYRIZA – 33.5% vs. 26%, according to the latest Pulse poll for SKAI – the two main parties seem to have different demands on their way to the upcoming elections. Based on the percentage and composition of the undecided and the degree of mobilization of the ND. may increase, the goal of achieving self-confidence in a second election with a new electoral law seems realistic to Mr. Mitsotakis. Therefore, he will insist on a programmatic conflict and comparison with Mr. Tsipras in order to ensure at least a “tolerant” vote of a critical mass of citizens who will lead N.D. in percentage above 37%-38%.

On the contrary, given that the SYRIZA rally is insignificant for the official opposition party, and Mr. Tsipras failed to create a “tide of overthrow”, extreme polarization appears to be largely a one-way street for Kumunduru.