The Russian invasion force lost a large number of Wagner PMC mercenaries because they relied mostly on recruits from Russian prisons and penal colonies, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes in its latest assessment of the situation in Ukraine.

ISW notes that the implications for Wagner’s group’s fighting capacity are compounded by the fact that the paramilitary group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has come to draw most of its mercenaries from Russian penal colonies.

In this regard, American military analysts quote the head of the Russian human rights organization “Sitting Russia” Olga Romanova, who states that of the approximately 50,000 prisoners recruited by Wagner’s mercenaries, only 10,000 are at the front. line in Ukraine, and the rest were lost due to high levels of casualties, surrenders and desertions.

ISW says that while it cannot independently confirm these figures, they are highly plausible given the pattern of using captives as cannon fodder in offensive operations with very high casualty rates. By the way, Andriy Medvedev, the former mercenary commander of the “Wagner” PMC, who fled to Norway after desertion, also spoke about this.

The situation is compounded by the fact that the paramilitary group led by Prigozhin seems to have begun to keep experienced mercenaries behind the line to use them as a kind of “special forces” operating in parallel with the convict units.

“The Wagner Group’s goal of reducing the attrition rate among non-prison mercenaries likely undermines its ability to retain and effectively utilize its large population of convicts,” ISW further notes.

The head of Wagner’s mercenaries allegedly lost the trust of Vladimir Putin

The institute also recalls reports that some relatives of Wagner mercenaries received empty coffins after being told their loved ones had died in Ukraine, suggesting the military group lacks the basic administrative and bureaucratic infrastructure to keep its own records of recorded casualties. .

In its previous assessment of the situation surrounding the conflict in Ukraine, ISW noted that Yevgeny Prigozhin, nicknamed “Putin’s chef” because of his firm Concordia, which serves the Kremlin, may have lost the Russian president’s trust after the failure of his irregular forces to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

The offensive on the Bakhmut axis is the only one that the Russian invasion forces have been conducting in Ukraine for months under the leadership of the “Wagner” PMC mercenaries, who have carried out numerous bloody attacks here since the beginning of August.

American military analysts have noted that Prigozhin appears to have believed that this phase of the war would be a time when his irregular troops could demonstrate what they were capable of and he could be given a more prominent role in commanding the invasion. at the expense of the military command in Moscow.

“These hopes now seem delusional,” said ISW’s earlier assessment.

It will be recalled that Russian investigative journalists wrote from the beginning of last summer that Wagner’s group began to recruit in Russian prisons in the face of a shortage of invasion forces due to significant losses in the first days of the invasion.

Earlier in January, Yevgeny Prigozhin released a video in which he claims that the first mercenaries recruited from prisons were pardoned after completing military service in Ukraine.

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