Andriy Kozyrev, Russia’s first foreign minister since the collapse of the Soviet Union, says President Vladimir Putin will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, echoing threats from his Soviet predecessors.

Kozyrev notes in a series of posts on his page from Twitter that there now seem to be two diametrically opposed rationales for why Russia should not be defeated in Ukraine.

The first is that it is too powerful as a nuclear superpower to turn to its arsenal of nuclear weapons if faced with imminent defeat. Second, Russia, on the contrary, is a giant on clay feet, a state that has almost collapsed, which, if defeated, will degenerate into chaos, leaving the country’s nuclear arsenal in uncertain hands.

“Putin and his clique, like their Soviet predecessors, realize that a nuclear war cannot be won and it cannot be waged. Not because of the millions of potential victims of a nuclear war, but because they too will die. They run for money, power and fame, not for suicide,” says Kozyrev, who was Russia’s foreign minister for 6 years from 1990 to 1996.

He notes that the ability and determination of the United States to resist Russian aggression has served as a strategic deterrent for more than 70 years.

Russia’s former foreign minister says Moscow’s blackmail “will have no limits” if Ukraine wins

As for Moscow’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons, Kozyrev says that they are in line with the so-called idea of ​​”escalation for de-escalation” of the conflict, but are only intended to scare Kyiv and convince Western powers. Ukraine will capitulate.

“If Ukraine and the West surrender, there will be no limits to blackmail. If not, Russia will face an overwhelmingly conventional response or a high chance of escalation to suicidal levels. Aware of these risks, the Kremlin did not implement its threats to use nuclear weapons to prevent the supply of weapons from the West to Ukraine or to take measures in response,” he emphasizes.

Kozyrev says the Kremlin may feel pressured to use nuclear weapons only in response to an invasion that threatens the very existence of “Putin’s kingdom,” as outlined in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which stipulates that the country’s nuclear arsenal can be used in an emergency. which threatens the very existence of the Russian state.

The former Russian diplomat also says the United States and NATO must make clear why they are helping Kyiv and what they mean by Kyiv winning the war launched by Putin on February 24: restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its treaty-recognized borders. international.

“This victory would be nowhere near an existential threat to Russia or Putin,” Kozyrev says, adding that despite the belligerent claims of propagandists in Moscow, Putin could easily abandon even the claim to annex occupied Ukrainian territories.

Andriy Kozyrev claims that Putin’s regime will one day fall

The former head of Russian diplomacy says that Russian propagandists will immediately change the sign at the direction of the Kremlin.

“Defeat? What defeat? Putin taught NATO a lesson: never think about attacking Russia. In the same way, it is possible to claim that the goals outlined by Putin at the beginning of the invasion were fulfilled: denazification, demilitarization and the end of the genocide in Donbas were successful,” explains Andriy Kozyrev.

He says the police state Putin has created will one day collapse, which could open the door for some reformers. But he warns that there is a possibility that this process will be long and that Putin or his regime will hold power in Russia for a long time, “turning it into a kind of giant North Korea, a depressed country.” with nuclear weapons dependent on China.”

In conclusion, Kozyrev emphasizes that if the USA and NATO do not allow Ukraine to get involved in this war, Russia will not dare to attack its neighbor, which is strongly protected by Washington, in the future, just as Kim Jong Un’s regime will not have the courage to do so.

From the position he held after the collapse of the USSR, Andriy Kozyrev led negotiations on the conclusion of agreements that led to Crimea remaining part of Ukraine, the nuclear disarmament of Kyiv or the “freezing” of the conflict in Transnistria.

The former Russian foreign minister moved to the United States in 2010, denouncing the “authoritarian, anti-Western system restored by Putin.” Lives in Miami since 2015.

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