To “parallel” and possibly simultaneous elections with key date May 14, they are heading to Athens and Ankarawith the Maximos Palace, given that no fear of hot episodeand in the direction of creating a “security umbrella” on the front of Greek-Turkish relations both Berlin and Washington are fully activated.

According to the information, this is the first step towards a smooth course between the two countries. In connection with the elections in mid-December last year in Brussels at the initiative of the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Mr. Soltz’s diplomatic adviser Jens Plettner. According to the same sources, the meeting had concrete productive results:

• The first, with Berlin as a “guarantor”, “red lines” were fixed, the crossing of which could provoke uncontrolled tensions in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean.
• Secondlyit was agreed, and most importantly, the agreement was preserved, that the channels of communication between Bura and Kalin, which had completely weakened in the previous period, remain open during the entire pre-election period in the two countries.

Before the elections in the two countries, that is, in fact, there will be a critical channel of direct communication between the offices of Mr. Mitsotakis and Mr. Erdogan.

However, Washington’s activity is also considered decisive. from which it is also clear that he does not want a major crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, since indeed the war in Ukraine is in full swing. The readiness of the United States to act as a fire engine on the front of Greek-Turkish relations is evidenced by the choice of the US Secretary of State to visit Athens and Ankara during the period from February 20 to 22, i.e. at the height of the pre-election period in the two countries, although the visit of Mr. Anthony Blinken to the region was not on the agenda of the State Department until recently.

Well, it is obvious that Washington currently has leverage on Mr. Tayyip Erdogan, since a positive development in the event of modernization and delivery of the F-16 would be a useful gift in battle, which the latter gives for a new term as President of Turkey. In any case, the State Department now has a complete picture of the risks of a possible aggravation of the situation in the region, and the Greek Ambassador to Washington, Alexandra Papadopoulou, played an important role in this direction.

Finally, according to the Greek side, it is in the interests of the Turkish president himself to show “restraint.” As highlighted, Mr. Tayyip Erdogan has begun to gain momentum to dominate the elections, and at the same time, by a court decision on Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, he dealt a strong blow to the opposition. In light of the foregoing, it would be a particularly great risk to trigger a major gamble whose final outcome cannot be determined, given the resolve the Greek government has shown during previous crises. While the Turkish president is not expected to back down from his aggressive rhetoric against Athens ahead of the election, an uncontrolled crisis would be a lose-lose development, the report said.

A diary

Blinken’s decision to visit Athens and Ankara at the height of the pre-election period, at the end of February, indicates the willingness of the United States to act as a firefighter.

As mentioned above, the decisive date for the elections in Ankara and Athens it’s May 14th: Tayyip Erdogan “photographed” this at the beginning of last week and officially announced yesterday as the day of the first round of the presidential elections in Turkey.

However, according to the information, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis also “surrounded” her, although, of course, the government is not going to “differentiate” the decisions of the Turkish president.

So, according to the prevailing scenario, as “K” mentioned again., elections by simple proportionality will be held on April 9, and the second on May 14. The time between the two competitions is considered constitutionally sufficient, since neither Mr. Mitsotakis nor Alexis Tsipras – if SYRIZA is expected to be the second party – will use the three days for the research mandate that they will receive from the President of the Republic, Katerina Sakellaropoulou.

It should be noted that May 14 is likely to be the day of national elections based on the planning of Megaros Maximos, even in the distant scenario in which the prime minister chooses the first simple proportionality electoral competition to be held later in the spring. . In this case, repeated elections will be held on June 15 or 22.

The government apparatus considers it positive that the elections in Greece and Turkey will be held simultaneously, and, most importantly, that the second round of the presidential elections in Turkey, on May 21, will take place after the first elections in Greece are completed. According to government sources, the most “dangerous” week in Greek-Turkish will be the period from 14 to 21 May. Then perhaps, and if the result of the first vote is not in his favor, Tayyip Erdogan will seek to create tension in order to rally part of his country’s nationalist audience, or even as a means of postponing the election, since the Turkish constitution provides such an opportunity. . So, it will be important, as they say on the morning of May 15, that there is a normal government in Greece, and not a provisional government.

Leading

However, the “parallel” holding of elections in Greece and Turkey also gives the Prime Minister a political advantage. In fact, in the last stretch of the road to May 14, Erdogan’s possible moves will be part of the public debate, which favors the ND. as Mr. Mitsotakis is clearly ahead of Alexis Tsipras in all opinion polls in the area of ​​foreign policy management. At the same time, he can highlight the successful handling of the two major crises of the previous three years, namely the attempted “invasion” of immigrants into Evros and the release of the investigative “Oruc Race”.