A Russian attack on Ukraine by Belarus is more likely at the end of 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War in its latest assessment of the conflict.

There is no indication that Russian forces in Belarus have the necessary command and control structures to attack Ukraine this winter or spring, which the Ukrainians have warned of in late 2022, ISW reports.

By autumn, Russia may go through several recruiting cycles. The delay could also allow Russia to produce more military equipment.

Movements of Russia

The Kremlin continues to hold high-level meetings with Minsk, an activity that could create the conditions for a Russian attack on Ukraine from Belarus, though not necessarily in the coming weeks, ISW notes.

Russian Defense Minister Serhiy Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin during a telephone conversation on Thursday discussed issues of bilateral military cooperation, implementation of unspecified measures of strategic deterrence and “training progress” of the Russian-Belarusian Joint Regional Group of Forces.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk on Thursday to discuss a Russian-Belarusian “joint vision” of the war.

Lavrov and Belarusian Foreign Minister Serhii Aleynik also discussed how Russia and Belarus can defeat the West’s ongoing hybrid war against states and signed a memorandum of cooperation on “ensuring biological security.”

The memo may be the main evidence of the escalation of an ongoing Russian intelligence operation that falsely accuses Ukraine of developing chemical and biochemical weapons at allegedly US-funded biolabs in Ukraine, which was part of the Kremlin’s pretext for the 2022 invasion.

New joint Russian-Belarusian exercises

Russian troops currently stationed in Belarus are undergoing a training rotation and are being redeployed to fight in eastern Ukraine.

It seems more likely that Russian forces will set the stage for a new Russian attack on Ukraine from Belarus in late 2023, given recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus plan to hold large-scale exercises (West 2023 and Union Shield 2023), likely in September . 2023 year.

Therefore, ISW analysts estimate that a Russian attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus may take place at the end of 2023.

In Minsk, they declare that they will not fight

Russia and Belarus began joint air military exercises on Monday, sparking fears in Kyiv and the West that Moscow could use its ally to launch a new ground offensive in Ukraine, Belarus’ defense ministry said.

The exercises, which Minsk previously called “defensive”, will last until February 1.

Minsk says the drills are defensive, but the steady build-up of Russian troops in Belarus, combined with a series of military operations in the country, echoes what happened even before Russia invaded Ukraine in February, when Moscow used the country to launch an attack.

The situation on the southern border of Belarus with Ukraine was not “very calm” and Ukraine “provoked” Belarus, said First Deputy State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus Pavlo Muraveyko in a post on Sunday on the Telegram channel. Ministry of Defense of Belarus.

“We keep the gunpowder dry”

“We keep our composure and patience, keep our powder dry. We have the necessary set of forces and means that will respond to any manifestation of aggression or terrorist threat on our territory,” Muravejko said.

Ukraine has constantly warned of possible attacks from Belarus, and President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said that the country should be ready on the border with Belarus.

The Kremlin denies that it pressured Belarusian President Oleksandr Lukashenko to play a more active role in the conflict in Ukraine. Minsk declared that they would not fight.

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