The likely capture of Soledar by Russian forces is not a significant event from an operational point of view and is unlikely to mean an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in an assessment published overnight from Thursday to Friday. .

Geolocation images released on January 11 and 12 show that Russian forces likely control most, if not all, of Soledar and may have pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the city.

The General Staff of Ukraine reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on the city of Sil in the Donetsk region, a settlement located more than a kilometer northwest of Soledar and behind the previous Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian General Staff and other senior military sources did not say Thursday that Ukrainian forces had repelled Russian attacks on Soledar, as they had done in the past.

Russian sources said Thursday that Russian forces were still clearing Soledar of remaining Ukrainian forces. Russian military bloggers on Thursday published images of Wagner Group fighters roaming freely in Soledar and claimed to have visited the settlement with Russian troops.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has not yet announced that Russian forces have captured Soledar, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov congratulated Russian forces on the success of their offensive in the settlement.

“Victory in the style of Pyrus”

All available evidence suggests that Ukrainian forces no longer have an organized defense in Soledar. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s statement on Thursday that Ukrainian troops are still in Soledar may refer to defensive positions nearby, but not in Soledar.

Russian intelligence operations greatly exaggerate the importance of Soledar, which is at best a Russian tactical victory “à la Pirus.”

ISW continues to assess that the capture of Soledar – a settlement of less than 14 square kilometers – will not allow Russian forces to control critical Ukrainian land lines of communication in Bakhmut, nor will it improve the position of Russian forces for a short-range encirclement of the city. term.

Russian forces likely captured Soledar after spending significant resources on a costly tactical victory that is likely to accelerate the decline of exhausted Russian forces near Bakhmut.

Russian forces may decide to maintain a steady pace of offensive in the Bakhmut area, but their reduced combat power and exhaustion will not give these attacks significant results from an operational point of view.