China’s invasion of Taiwan would likely be doomed if the United States defended the island, a US think tank said on Monday, but insisted the cost would be devastating to US forces, AFP reported.

Taiwanese soldiersPhoto: Walid Berrazeg / Zuma Press / Profimedia Images

Military experts gathered at the Center for Strategic and International Studies to simulate the war said that each side directly involved in such a conflict (the United States, China, Taiwan and Japan) would suffer “enormous” losses.

“We came to two conclusions,” said Eric Heginbotham, a security expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). “First, in most cases, China has little chance of succeeding and achieving its operational objectives or occupying Taipei,” the capital of Taiwan. “Secondly, the cost of war will be high for all involved and certainly for the United States.”

During the simulation, 24 scenarios were tested, each representing China’s attempts to establish control over Taiwan by force by 2026. The extent of the United States’ involvement would be crucial: without American help in defending Taiwan, the island would have been conquered by the Chinese Army in three months or less.

The simulation suggested that the invasion would begin with a Chinese bombardment that would wipe out most of Taiwan’s naval and air forces within hours. The Chinese fleet would surround Taiwan and throw thousands of amphibious troops across the Taiwan Strait.

According to the scenario that the experts involved in the simulations consider the most likely, the Taiwanese army will force the invaders to blockade the coast. “China’s strikes on Japanese bases and American surface ships do not change the situation: Taiwan remains autonomous,” the script reads.

According to Matthew Kanchian of the Naval War College, a research institute of the US Navy, important variables will determine the degree of success of the invasion: the degree of Taiwan’s determination to repel the invasion, and whether the United States has the right to invade Japan. launch counterattacks from their bases on Japanese soil. Without them, “American intervention would not be enough to preserve Taiwan’s autonomy,” Kanchian says.

The simulation also raised some unknown questions, including whether the US would risk a nuclear conflict by attacking China directly.

(source: Agerpres)