Tayyip Erdogan can be blamed for many things, but not for elitist behavior. Unlike many of his European counterparts, the Turkish leader has a unique gift for easy communication with an ordinary citizen. Through his personal experience and his previous service as mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan can convincingly play a resentful citizen, a benevolent leader, and a tough patriot. Despite his big mistakes and obsessions, he remains dominant on the Turkish political scene.

Now his chances of being re-elected in the 2023 presidential election are high for two reasons. First, the opposition has not yet decided who will be its own candidate. Anti-Erdogan forces continue to pursue individual strategies, but time is against them. Second, after 20 years in power, the ruling party’s clientele networks are able to mobilize large masses of voters. There are many powerful factors gathering around Erdogan’s candidacy. The overwhelming majority of the business world adheres to the saying “who is looking for an ideal friend will be left without friends” (Ayıpsız dost arayan dosstuz kılar).

In any case, Greek-Turkish relations are not going to improve until the upcoming elections in Turkey. Ankara has no serious motivation to soften the confrontation with Athens. The EU and NATO have focused their attention on the war in Ukraine, which, unfortunately, will not end quickly. Ankara behaves like a “different bride”, which no one dares to punish for such behavior.

However, an Imiya-style offensive would be a risky move for the Turkish leadership. There are three reasons for this conclusion. Athens’ military response should be taken for granted as our country entered a pre-election period full of national security tensions. Based on the military balance of forces on land, at sea and in the air, the Greek side can repel the Turkish attack and inflict (if desired) disproportionate damage to Ankara. In addition, Athens will certainly demand the immediate activation of the clause on mutual military assistance with Paris, with all the ensuing consequences for the Turkish side.

One way or another, Ankara decided to move in the gray zone, that is, above the threshold of peace and below the threshold of war. Every Turkish action is based on calculated risk and contains hybrid elements. The goal is to undermine our sovereignty and sovereign rights without provoking a war with an unpredictable outcome. However, Greek containment is constantly being tested, as the red lines are not always clear.

The question arises whether it is possible to normalize bilateral relations after the elections in Turkey. It is important to know where the bar of our expectations should go. Not all Greek-Turkish disputes are solvable. No Greek government can agree to the partial or complete demilitarization of the islands. It is also impossible to accept the Turkish argument about gray areas or violations of national airspace. In these matters, our position must be unshakable and resolute, as required by national interests.

Ankara has no incentive to soften the confrontation with Athens, since E.E. and NATO focuses on Ukraine.

At the same time, it would be a big mistake to believe in the legitimacy of the conflict. The agreement between Israel and Lebanon creates new data in the Eastern Mediterranean. The two countries don’t even have diplomatic relations, and border incidents happen frequently. However, with the mediation of the United States, an agreement on the delimitation of maritime zones on the basis of international law became possible. Thus, the two countries will be able to exploit the underwater natural gas fields located in their area. It is worth noting that even the Shiite organization Hezbollah accepted the agreement, despite its close connection with Iran.

Now we must rethink our strategy towards Turkey. We are properly preparing for the worst-case scenario. But what do we really want to achieve in the long term, given that most of the Turkish positions are not going to change radically?

The neighboring country has begun to catch itself in a narrative that sees Greece as the long spear of a Western conspiracy. This distorted view of reality is not only being solved with more of our own equipment. As ironic as it may sound, only Erdogan today has the political capital to initiate a (even minor) normalization of Greek-Turkish relations. For this to happen, the mutual suspicion between the two sides must first be reduced.

In April 1976, Konstantinos Karamanlis proposed to Suleiman Demirel that a non-aggression pact be concluded between Greece and Turkey. The Turkish side rejected this proposal, but the idea remains extremely relevant. This development of events will indeed pave the way for the peaceful coexistence of the two countries. Besides, no sane person in Greece wants war with Turkey. If we hope that the olive industry will not be accepted, at least we will know what the future holds for us.

* Mr. Manos Karagiannis is Professor of International Relations at the University of Macedonia and teaches a course in International Security at King’s College London. His new book, Deterrence and Defense, is published by Papadopoulos Publications.