Cairo’s decision to unilaterally demarcate – along the middle line – maritime zones with Libya is absolutely critical. First of all, in the interests of Greece, this confirms the agreement between Greece and Egypt of 2020. Second, it comes at a time when Ankara is “begging” the Egyptian president for a handshake sponsored by the Emir of Qatar. Turkish pro-government media are hailing the related photo as Turkey’s great diplomatic comeback. However, distrust of the Erdogan regime does not disappear overnight. The signal being sent cannot be interpreted in any other way: Egypt has made its choice, and its credibility as a regional partner and leading player should not be questioned.

Third, and perhaps most important, it turns out that the Greek-Egyptian demarcation agreement is the basis for a comprehensive settlement of disputes in the area of ​​Greece, Turkey, Libya, Egypt. If Ankara’s choice over Athens was almost a one-way street for the interim Libyan government – an act of Turkey buying Ankara’s “protection” with a surrealist memorandum – now that government faces a strategic dilemma.

The choice between Ankara and Cairo is existential in nature, and fixation on the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, which Egypt not only rejects de jure, but also ignores de facto, does not leave even tolerable options for the Dbeiba government. There is no doubt that the gap between Tripoli and Benghazi will widen the next day.

Literally at the same moment, an agreement was signed for the construction and laying of an underwater telecommunications cable connecting Egypt and Greece. It does not need a special analysis of its significance at this stage. In Eastern Mediterranean chess, Athens can feel content. The decision to close the unresolved dispute with Egypt in 2020 justifies Greek diplomacy. Even those who looked at it with reservations at the time cannot help but admit that it not only neutralized the Turkish movements, but also put Athens in an advantageous position from a legal and diplomatic point of view, as well as on a tactical and strategic level.

Obviously, there is no place for inaction, which brings satisfaction. Perhaps now more than ever since 2019, a window is opening for negotiations that will respect Greece’s interests.

Athens, despite the toxicity and aggression engendered by the revisionism of the Erdogan regime, now has relative consolation to take the lead with Egypt on a process that, under certain conditions, could bring Greek-Turkish relations out of the impasse they have reached. condemned by the President of Turkey. There should be no illusion that Ankara’s immediate reaction will be harsh and uncompromising. Until the election, “normality” will be as we know it.

* Mr. Costas Ifantis is Professor of International Relations and Director of IDIS at Panteion University.