The OPEC oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia and its other allies including Russia, left its oil supply targets unchanged for the global economy on Sunday, despite uncertainty over the impact of new Western sanctions against Russia that could take significant volumes of oil off the market. Sunday’s decision came a day before two measures aimed at cutting off Russia’s oil revenues in response to its invasion of Ukraine take effect.

Since November, the OPEC+ alliance has reduced production by two million barrels per day.

It is not yet clear how much Russian oil could leave the market as a result of the EU boycott, as Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, has been able to divert much of its supply to Europe to customers in India, China and Turkey.

The impact of the price cap is also a big unknown, as Russia could simply cut off supplies to countries that adhere to the cap, just as it could find ways around it.

Meanwhile, oil fell on fears that the coronavirus outbreak and tight restrictions in China will reduce demand for the fuel in one of the world’s largest economies.

Recession concerns in the US and Europe are also clouding the outlook for lower fuel demand.

85.42 – The price in US dollars for a barrel of Brent at which the market closed on Friday

Because of this uncertainty, the OPEC+ alliance has cut production by two million barrels per day since November, a cut that remains in place.

A slowdown in the global economy has pushed oil prices down from summer highs, with Brent settling at $85.42 a barrel on Friday, down from $98 a month ago.

This has lowered gasoline prices for drivers in the US and around the world.

Average gasoline prices for U.S. drivers fell to $3.41 a gallon in recent days, according to data from the AAA Federation of Automobile Clubs.

Russia would likely try to avoid the price cap by organizing its own insurers and using ghost fleets of non-compliant ships, as Iran and Venezuela have done, but that would be expensive and cumbersome, analysts say.