Ankara has been closely following the movements of Athens since yesterday’s expansion of ExxonMobil’s hydrocarbon research south of the November 7 NAVTEX limit.

Early evidence shows that specific investigations do not affect Turkey’s own interests in the eastern Mediterranean.

However, analysts stress that Tripoli may react as Turkish sources say the interests of Libya’s potential continental shelf are being affected, according to the arbitrary assumptions on which the 2019 Turkey-Libya memorandum was drafted.

If the Tripoli government takes advantage of this position and issues NAVTEX for seismic surveys in areas it claims to belong to its own continental shelf, it is almost certain that Turkey will respond positively by sending its own research vessels with the aim, it is claimed, of preventing the creation from happening. But this is a political decision that no one can confidently discount.

Seasoned analysts report that the Turkish-Libyan agreement, which provides for cooperation in the field of hydrocarbon research, is a “powerful weapon” in the hands of the two countries. However, they do not lose sight of the fact that Greece is cooperating in the region with influential US interest groups.

Given the recent tensions caused by the visit of Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias to Libya and subsequent events, the Turkish government is on standby. Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met in Morocco with Tripoli Foreign Minister Najla Mangus.

Under these conditions, Turkey is preparing to send its drilling rig to the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkish Petroleum Exploration Company (TRAO) CEO Melih Khan Bilgin said the new drilling rig will “sail in the coming days”. His new mission is planned in the Mediterranean, we are taking an x-ray of the Blue Homeland.”

According to political analysts, in the coming days Ankara will release the appropriate NAVTEX to determine the shooting point and does not exclude the possibility of sending it to the areas of the exclusive economic zone of Libya, which in the past, as they say, were preceded by seismic surveys, although there is no specific data for such a case. However, they do not rule out that it will also be sent inside the Cypriot EEZ.

However, in recent months, Turkey has avoided exploration in areas that could cause tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, and drilling has previously taken place in areas close to the Turkish coast.

The Turkish side takes into account the fact that research in the Greek EEZ is being carried out by an American company.

However, the visit of Nikos Dendias to Libya and Cairo and the reaction of Greece to the Tripoli government have created new data that are being studied with particular attention. Greece’s ongoing rapprochement with Egypt, the recent agreement to define search and rescue areas, and public debate in Greece to expand territorial waters to 12 miles in some areas have Turkish officials on their toes.

However, the anti-American position of the Turkish government on various fronts makes a special impression. Officials and analysts speaking to Turkish media say the F-16 upgrade is dragging on. They emphasize that if the US approves the F-16 sale, the first fighters will arrive in 2028, when Greece will modernize all F-16s, use French Rafale fighters, and probably receive F-35s.

The event that provoked a strong reaction from the United States was the statement by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who made it clear that his country would use the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system and, as he said, “could do it within an hour.” The State Department’s reaction was unequivocal, as it emphasized that it was this air defense system that threatened the security of NATO systems and threatened Ankara with new sanctions if it purchased new Russian weapons systems. Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu 15 days ago directly accused Washington of involvement in the terrorist attack on Istiklal Street in Istanbul. Recep Tayyip Erdogan put Greece and the US on the same footing. “Of course, we are concerned about the behavior of the West in Greece, especially in America. Alexandroupolis is one such problem,” Erdogan said last week, alleging that Greece and the US host and support terrorist organizations.

Turkey’s particularly close and allied relations with Russia in all areas are considered one of the important factors in such a tense and tough attitude of Ankara towards Washington.

However, opposition officials argue that one of the reasons is Turkey’s sharp retreat on its policies with Israel, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

They argue that the anti-American and anti-Greek stance sweeps under the carpet the 180-degree turn they are making on other issues, and do not exclude for this very reason that a tougher stance could be adopted, especially towards Greece.