“After the Blue Motherland and the casus belli, now the threat to Greece with the saying “one night we will come suddenly” is becoming the official ideology and doctrine of Turkey and this requires a lot of attention,” an experienced political scientist in a neighboring country told us the country in our conversation a few hours after his statements Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a press conference following the G20 meeting.

a journalist from his state television asked Mr. Erdogan. Turkey as he comments on Greece’s “aggressive stance” in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, and Mr. Erdogan states that “what I always say is ‘one night we can come suddenly'” is our basic principle. This is for me the final saying, which cannot be canceled, this is the basic principle. So one night we can suddenly go again.”

This was the fourth time since last September that the Turkish President threatened a military operation and an invasion of Greece. However, unlike the previous ones, it is believed that this time it is clarified that this threat to Athens is the doctrine of Turkish defense and foreign policy and will always remain so.

According to experienced diplomats and political scientists, Ankara’s casus belli, that is, the threat of war in connection with the possibility of expanding Greek territorial waters in the Aegean, concerns only this particular issue. However, Mr. Erdogan’s statement reveals the extent of the threat and can be used for any issue that Ankara considers eligible for a military operation and invasion of Greece.

For example, they state that in case the Turkish government considers further militarization of the Greek islands a threat, or wants to prevent the construction of a project on an island in the Aegean where Turkey disputes Greek sovereignty, or considers that terrorist organizations are supported by Greece, which is often mentioned by Turkish officials, now there is also the doctrine of “we will come suddenly one night” as a possible Turkish answer.

At the same press conference, it is no coincidence that Mr. Erdogan mentioned the Greek islands, stating: “Fill (inv. equip) these islands as much as you want. None of this will do you any good. Here is Turkey. Airplanes come, guns and all that … it’s useless. This work is not a matter of effort and strength, it is a matter of the heart.”

The doctrine of the “Blue Motherland” was originally based on statements, there was nothing concrete in it. Later, a map emerged with Mr. Erdogan photographed in the background, followed by the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, and then the coordinates that Ankara sent to the UN as the “Turkish continental shelf” in the Eastern Mediterranean, which ignores the Greek islands and does not recognize their influence on the definition of the continental shelf.

According to K’s sources, the new doctrine is much broader than the casus belli, which concerns only territorial waters.

There is an opinion that this is how a new dogma against Greece is being built. In the next period, new movements and specific claims may follow.

At the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, the Turkish President met with Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Soltz, as well as Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni. Mr. Erdogan, in his brief meeting with his American counterpart, did not receive the final promises he wanted for the modernization of the Turkish F-16s, while the French president, according to the French presidency, gave Turkey clear recommendations to avoid any tension in the Eastern Mediterranean and asked to advance the issue of Sweden’s accession to NATO. They discussed issues of defense and energy cooperation with the Prime Minister of Italy.

According to Mr. Erdogan himself, Macron and Meloni said that there are “technical obstacles” in the supply of the SAMP-T anti-aircraft system, which Ankara claims, and they hope that they will be resolved in the future. This whole climate does not particularly suit Ankara, since the arms programs announced by it are not moving fast, and, according to Turkish military analysts, “Greece receives two modern fighters every month.”

While the Turkish president in Bali was trying to make a move towards rapprochement with the West, two of his ministers expressed completely different positions in their statements.

Hours before the Biden-Erdogan meeting, Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu blamed the US for the attack in Istanbul that killed six people and wounded 81. we were given, we received the message they gave us, and we know what the message is. I emphasize that we reject the condolences of the American embassy. They are feeding the terrorist areas in Kobani with the intention of disturbing the peace in Turkey by sending money from their Senate. Our alliance with such a state must be discussed.”

Turkish broadcaster FOX TV and other opposition media have claimed in the past that Soylu’s relationship with Erdogan’s son-in-law, former minister Berat Albayrak, is at its lowest point and that there is a serious power struggle going on between them. According to analysts, Mr. Albayrak may not hold a ministerial position today, but he is close to many decisions of the Turkish president and is considered one of those who support rapprochement with the West. In the past, it was he who had personal contacts with Donald Trump’s entourage.

Cavusoglu v USA

A day after the return of the Turkish President from Bali, Mevlut Cavusoglu said: “What right does the European Union have to interfere in the affairs of the Organization of Turkish States? Our message to the United States is: you have upset the balance in Turkish-Greek relations, and in Cyprus the balance has been upset. Be balanced. And if you are talking about international law, look at the violations by Greece and the Greek Cypriot side. We are also not going to get a license from the US. The Turkish Age has begun. “Turkish Spring” has begun. The Foreign Secretary asked both the United States and the European Union to “put aside threats and hooliganism.” They no longer pass for the Turkish world. Your threats didn’t work either. The necessary steps have been taken. This is the beginning. Step by step, God first, more will come.”