Kremlin officials are beginning to tone down their rhetoric on the use of nuclear weapons after raising the tone of threats in October, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest analysis, stressing that the goal was to intimidate Kyiv and cut off international support for Ukraine.

Between Vladimir Putin’s speech on September 30, in which he suggested but did not directly threaten the use of nuclear weapons, and his speech on October 27, Russian officials of all ranks stepped up threats aimed at intimidating the government in Kyiv.

Russian officials then began to tone down their rhetoric about the use of these weapons, and on November 2 the Russian Foreign Ministry even issued a statement about “preventing nuclear war,” while one of the most aggressive Russian officials, Dmytro Medvedev, vice president of Russia’s Security Council, began to focus on “promoting the unity of Russia in the war in Ukraine.”

How to explain the change in the Kremlin’s rhetoric

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the change in the Kremlin’s rhetoric indicates that the Russian military leadership is to some extent aware of the enormous costs that Russia would incur if it used nuclear weapons against Ukraine or a NATO country.

Earlier this month, the New York Times reported, citing senior U.S. officials, that Russian military leaders had recently discussed when and how Moscow might use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, information that raised concerns in Washington and allied capitals. However, Vladimir Putin would not come to the meeting, which was supposed to take place in October, – reminds ISW.

Analysts also say that China may also have played a role in pressuring the Kremlin to scale back its nuclear threats, and they don’t rule out that Moscow will get back at them in an attempt to pressure the United States and its allies into Ukraine to start talks. .

ISW maintains its assessment that the risk of nuclear weapons use in Ukraine remains low, but says that “the United States and its allies must not undermine Ukraine’s coherence and commitment to return all occupied territory and halt Russian incursions.”

Head of NATO: “The risk of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is small, but the consequences will be colossal, so we take it very seriously”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the end of last week that he does not believe that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but he takes this option “very seriously”, reports The Guardian.

“The risk of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is small, but the consequences will be colossal, so we take it very seriously. There are no winners in a nuclear war,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, reports the Meduza website, which is quoted by The Guardian.

Recently, Jens Stoltenberg sharply warned Russia: if it uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the consequences will be serious.

“There will be serious consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, any nuclear weapon. I won’t go into the exact details of how we would respond, but a nuclear strike would fundamentally change the nature of the conflict. This means that a very important line has been crossed,” he said.

NATO’s secretary general also said the alliance would remain “very vigilant” in the coming weeks as Russia conducts nuclear drills.

Soltenberg made the remark as a NATO official said a Russian nuclear strike would “almost certainly” trigger a “physical response” from Ukraine’s allies and possibly NATO.

For his part, US President Joe Biden, who recently warned that the risk of “nuclear Armageddon” is at its highest level in the last 60 years, said in an interview with CNN that threats coming from Russia could lead to catastrophic “mistakes “. ” and “miscalculations,” though he declined to say exactly how the United States would respond if Putin deployed a tactical nuclear device on the battlefield in Ukraine.

How many tactical nuclear weapons would Russia have?

According to Pentagon estimates, Russia has up to 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons that are intended for use on the battlefield.

No tactical nuclear weapons have ever been used in combat, but such weapons can be mounted on missiles, launched from the air, or even in projectiles at relatively short ranges, rather than ballistic missiles that can travel thousands of kilometers to strike targets on other continents .

Tactical nuclear weapons have a lower yield and are designed to be used at shorter ranges than warheads on ICBMs.

Military experts say that the use of nuclear weapons – for the first time in more than 75 years – would fundamentally change the shape of war. While the destruction will depend on many factors, including the size of the weapon and the direction/force of the wind, even a small nuclear explosion could kill thousands of people and render parts of Ukraine uninhabitable, the New York Times reports.