International sanctions posed an unprecedented challenge to Russian civil aviation. As always, the Kremlin talks about import substitution, but in this case it is about rebuilding the industry from scratch, Insider.ro reports.

If it is impossible to expand the production of Soviet aircraft to a sufficient extent, then the new liners do not even come close to the certification stage. Meanwhile, the country is losing pilots, and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has sounded the alarm over Russia over flight safety, putting it in the same category as the tiny kingdom of Bhutan.

The only option left is to dismantle existing aircraft to obtain spare parts to repair other aircraft. Given the low volume of air travel, the situation appears to be under control, but only for a limited time.

There are 9,000 pilots in Russia, 1,000 of them have lost their jobs in the last six months

There are factors that indicate an imminent collapse, for example, mass layoffs of pilots.

According to the president of the flight crew union Myroslav Boychuk, up to 1,000 employees have lost their jobs, and the total number of pilots in Russia barely exceeds 9,000.

The flight staff union in Sheremetyevo insists on downsizing airlines regardless of cost.

So, according to rumors, budget airline Pobeda plans to lay off 170 pilots and reduce its fleet to 30 aircraft. Although airline officials deny such intentions, they have not explained how they plan to deal with the inevitable reduction in the number of flights.

In any case, there was no preparation for a sanctioned strike, as all the development of airline and manufacturing capabilities, technological and business systems that Russia had been building since the 1990s was nullified overnight.

• Link: “It’s going to hurt.” Due to sanctions, Russia dismantles planes so that others can fly / Experts say that the “cannibalization” of planes is only a matter of time

Instant fines and hijacking of charter planes

As everywhere in the world, in Russia during the last two decades the main burden of air transportation was carried by two brands: the American Boeing and the European Airbus.

Aeroflot, Russia’s largest airline, long ago phased out Soviet Tu-154M aircraft, completing the last flight of the type on December 31, 2009.

At that time, the carrier had more than 100 new Airbus and Boeing airliners available.

According to the estimates of the then General Director of Aeroflot, Vitaly Saveliev, modern aircraft allowed the company to occupy a 30% share of the passenger transportation market in Russia.

Transaero, the country’s second largest airline, had 47 aircraft, of which only three were domestically produced Tu-214 airliners. S7 Airlines, in second place, operated 32 aircraft, all Boeing or Airbus.

The development of the Sukhoi Superjet 100 short-haul airliner numerically accelerated Russian aeronautical engineering, but due to a large proportion of borrowed foreign technology, did little to eliminate excessive dependence on imports.

At the beginning of 2022, Russian aircraft accounted for 18% of the fleet (excluding business jets and helicopters) of the 20 largest Russian carriers by number of passengers.

Another 39% were European aircraft, 36% American, 4% Canadian, and the remaining 3% Brazilian.

As practice has shown, anti-Russian sanctions can take months to develop and another six months to apply – as was the case with a partial oil embargo – but no one can keep up with civil aviation.

How Western sanctions worked

Since February 26, the EU has deprived Russian airlines of the right to use European planes.

New deliveries, maintenance of already purchased airliners and aircraft insurance were no longer available. The restrictions also provided for the mandatory return of leased aircraft within a month – until March 28.

According to the estimates of the analytical agency Cirium, Russia leases 55% of its aircraft fleet from international corporations. Out of 980 liners serving passenger flights, 515 aircraft with a total value of 10 billion dollars belonged to foreign owners. At the end of March, Saveliev confirmed these statistics in his new position as Minister of Transport.

A week after the start of the war, Boeing and Airbus stopped cooperation with Russian airlines, including the supply of spare parts. Boeing also closed its Moscow offices.

Embraer followed suit the next day, despite the fact that Brazil is a BRICS member and Brazil has no sanctions against Russia. The last of the world’s major aircraft manufacturers to join the boycott was the Canadian company Bombardier.

Complying with the West’s collective ultimatum would mean stopping most Russian air traffic, so the Kremlin chose the path of nationalization.

On March 14, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree authorizing the registration of rights to foreign aircraft leased to Russian airlines and the issuance of airworthiness certificates. The following week, more than 800 aircraft were added to the registry.

Under international law, this qualifies as theft, so if any of these planes leave Russian airspace, they can be confiscated and returned to their owner.

Integral on The Insider.ru

It’s only a matter of time before Russian planes are “cannibalized”

Russian-built Sukhoi Superjets are also heavily dependent on foreign spare parts. One engine has already been removed from one such plane to allow the other Superjet to continue flying, the first source said.

Of course, engines are often changed between aircraft and are usually supplied under separate contracts, industry experts explained. They are not considered part of the basic structure of the aircraft.

It is “only a matter of time” before Russian aircraft are “cannibalized,” a source in the Western aviation industry said.

Newer generations of aircraft – the A320neo, A350 and Boeing 737 MAX and 787 – have technologies that need to be constantly updated.

Even for Russia’s highly developed and competent engineering base, Western sources say it will be a “challenge” to keep modern aircraft in service at most a year after the sanctions take effect.

Aeroflot article photo © Pavlo Losevsky | Dreamstime.com