This year’s second budget adjustment will be based on economic growth of 4.6%. The Commission for National Strategy and Forecasting has released new estimates for the Ministry of Finance to prepare new budget data. It is possible that the 2023 budget will also be based on them.

Basically, the estimate was raised from 3.5%.

In value terms, due to inflation, it reaches almost 1,400 billion lei. While little growth was expected in industry over the summer, CNSP now sees a 1.2% decline in GDP contribution, and agriculture from -3.4% to -12.8%, which means we are seeing the impact of this year’s drought.

Inflation at the end of the year is forecast at the level of 15.2%, against what the authorities saw in the summer: 12.9%.

According to a note to the forecast, the inflation process turned out to be more stable and with a greater amplitude than previously expected, so the slowdown in consumer price growth is also estimated to be less intense.

“Under these conditions, inflation forecasts have been revised upwards for the current year and the next two years by about 1.3 percentage points on average over the year, so that in the period 2024-2025 they will fall to around 3%,” this is shown in documents

• The forecasts took into account the current regulations regarding the change in the electricity price limit scheme until August 31, 2023, the continuation of the measure to lower the price of fuel by 50 baht/liter until the end of the current year, as well as the relative stabilization of the main international quotations.

• Adverse short-term effects are expected for the food component as a result of the prolonged drought this year, as well as a secondary effect of energy price volatility. At the same time, it is expected that the prices of industrial products and construction costs will have downward dynamics, but will remain at double-digit values ​​next year.

What data could the 2023 budget be based on

If the 2023 budget is presented in November, it means it will be based on this new data.

Thus, the CNSP forecasts economic growth of 2.8% next year. In terms of nominal GDP, the commission expects 1.552 billion lei.

The trade deficit will amount to 41.6 billion lei against 35.2 billion lei.

Inflation at the end of next year is forecast at the level of 8% with an annual average of 9.6%.

Average exchange rate: 4.98 lei/euro.

In terms of average net wage growth, it is expected to increase by 11.4%, to 4,235 lei/month, and from negative real growth of -2% to positive +1.7%.

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