Almost every microbeast at some point thinks they could find a formula that would beat the house and win consistently. But the perception will change after gaining some experience.

In sports, the honest calculation does not coincide with the domestic one, and the unexpected can be found in the daily routine. It is only after the player begins to follow the offer and the results every day that he begins to understand that in fact the favorites do not win as often as he thought, and that surprises can happen at any time.

There are many approaches to betting, but only a few are good. In general, professional bettors are guided by the same principles. It all starts with understanding how chances are created. Take for example the final between “Manchester City” and “Liverpool”.

If the operator rated City as a 40% chance to win, Liverpool as a 27% chance to win and a draw as a 33% chance, the net odds would look like this: Man City @ 2.50 Liverpool @ 3.70 Draw @ 3.03.

However, in the bookmaker’s offer, you will find odds of this value for such a match: Man City @ 2.37 Liverpool @ 3.51 Draw @ 2.87. This is due to the fact that each agency deducts a commission from the proposed offers.

In the example given, the profit rate charged by the operator is 5.5%, which is very good for the player, but there are many cases where the house commission is higher. Bookmaking agencies do not practice a fixed commission. The winning margin depends on the operator, the sport, the competition and the type of bet.

The main reason professional bettors play singles exclusively is that the house edge increases with each selection added to the ticket. Simply put, single bets, regardless of whether it is live or pre-match sports betting, are the most profitable for the player.

Given the handicap players have from low odds, it’s easy to see why it would be very difficult for anyone to break even in the long run. Therefore, the best option is to look for forecasts for which operators offer higher odds than they should, trying to neutralize this margin. These are value bets.

The idea is to develop an analysis model that allows you to consistently set your own odds. Of course, it takes time and practice. However, you may be wondering how you can find the values ​​of the odds, given that operators use complex mechanisms and hire specialists to monitor major sports and competitions.

Well, the value of the coefficients can be found in the bookmakers’ offers, since they are not necessarily set according to probabilities, but rather according to the expectations of each individual operator. Most bookmakers trade individual bets, that is, when a customer makes a bet, the operator plays a counter bet at another agency or on the exchange. Thus, the house covers and ensures a safe profit, regardless of the outcome of the game.

Due to the fact that many amateurs bet especially on favorites, it often happens that operators offer more valuable odds for underdogs. This explains another common reality among professionals, which is that they play predictions with average odds of over 2.00.

It is important to know that betting results should be evaluated every few months or every 500-1000 bets because the numbers can be misleading in the short term.