“We are facing one of the biggest energy crises since the oil crisis of the 70s. I was then a student at the French Petroleum Institute in Paris. It was 1972 and we were told that we only had enough oil for the next twenty years. Well, the year 2022 has come, and we still have a lot of oil, but at a very high price. Energy and climate, these two elements will be our big challenge in the near future.” This is how the High Representative of the EU began his speech. in charge of foreign policy, Josep Borrell, before the ambassadors to the Union last week.

Criticizing the role of diplomats, he said that now is not the time when he will send them flowers, caressing their ears. “This is the moment when we will talk to each other about what we are doing and what is missing, because I am not always happy with the work of missions in the EU. I want to send a clear signal of what needs to be done to improve.”

“We live in a world of extreme uncertainty. The speed and scale of change is paramount. We should not deny it or resist it, because that would be a futile exercise. We have to come to terms with it, adapt and show flexibility and endurance,” he commented. In his opinion, most of the events will be episodes of the “black swan”. Europeans are facing the consequences of a process that has taken years. In this context, they have cut off the sources of their prosperity from the sources of their security. Their prosperity was based on cheap energy from Russia. Russian gas was supposed to be economical, safe and stable, which was refuted. Their prosperity was also based on access to the Chinese market for exports and imports, for technology transfer and investment, to have cheap products. “I think Chinese workers, with their low wages, have done much more to curb inflation than all the central banks put together,” he said.

“Our prosperity was based on China and Russia. Today, we certainly need to find new sources of energy in the EU, as much as possible, because we must not substitute one addiction for another. The best energy is the one we produce at home.” According to him, “access to China is becoming more and more difficult. Adaptation will be difficult and it will create political problems.”

“I am not always satisfied with the work of missions in the EU. I want to send a clear signal of what needs to be done to improve.”

We have a complex cocktail – inside and out – and the old recipes no longer work. “The war in Ukraine continues. We did not predict how effectively Ukraine would resist. At first we did not believe that there would be a war,” he admitted, despite the fact that the Americans warned the EU. about. The EU did not expect any escalation from Putin, nor the level of militarization, nor nuclear threats. As for the US-Chinese rivalry, it may not have come as a surprise, but the escalation of tension around Taiwan was not expected.

The third element was the food and energy crisis, not so much the crises as such, but their severity. “And we are only at the beginning,” he warned. This is the “perfect storm”. First, prices rose, then the reaction of central banks, which raised interest rates in the United States, followed. Everyone is obliged to follow, because otherwise their coins will be devalued. And this, in turn, causes a global recession. In other words, what happened in Europe with the euro because of Germany is now happening on a global scale. According to Borel, security concerns are not limited to Ukraine. Similar problems exist in the Sahel, where Russian involvement is surprising. “It’s amazing how much Russia is becoming a major player in African theaters. We didn’t expect how quickly it could be done, from the Central African Republic to Mali, and I don’t even know what’s going on in Burkina Faso.”

Despite the dominant rivalry between the US and China, there are not only two poles on the planet, but also many players defending their interests and values. “Look at Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia. These are average forces that fluctuate. Some vote for one side, others join the other, depending on their interests.” Another characteristic of the current situation is that everything is instrumentalized: energy, investment, information, migration flows, data, and so on. The third feature is growing nationalism, revisionism plus identity politics.

How can we solve these problems? Thinking more politically and acting actively. “We think very introspectively and try to export our model, but we do not think about how others will perceive the export of our models,” he emphasized. “We need to listen more. Let’s listen to the rest of the world. We need more empathy. We tend to overemphasize logical arguments… But we underestimate the role of emotion and the enduring charm of identity politics. Remember this phrase: “It’s ID, idiot!”. This is no longer an economy, these are identities.”